dinsdag 22 december 2009
The Economists' debate: Food Policy
This house believes that governments should play a stronger role in guiding food and nutrition choices. Follow the complete debate here.
Studying Young Minds, and How to Teach Them
For much of the last century, educators and many scientists believed that children could not learn math at all before the age of five, that their brains simply were not ready. But recent research has turned that assumption on its head — that, and a host of other conventional wisdom about geometry, reading, language and self-control in class. The findings, mostly from a branch of research called cognitive neuroscience, are helping to clarify when young brains are best able to grasp fundamental concepts. Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
L’urgence d’un fonds "vert"
Il pourrait s’autofinancer, avec l’aide des pays développés, tout en engageant les réserves d’or du FMI. Une opinion de George Soros, Président du Soros Fund Management et de l'Open Society Institute.
Lisez l'article dans LLB ici.
maandag 21 december 2009
La nouvelle folle ruée vers l'or
Le prix de l'or s'est envolé, pour dépasser les 1.100 dollars l'once. Cette récente flambée n'est qu'en partie justifiée par les fondamentaux économiques et ressemble à s'y tromper à une bulle spéculative. Le prix de l'or n'augmente nettement que dans deux situations : lorsque l'inflation est élevée et continue à croître, l'or permet de se couvrir. Et quand il y a un risque de quasi-dépression et que les investisseurs craignent pour leurs dépôts bancaires, l'or devient une valeur refuge. Les deux dernières années correspondent à ce schéma. Le prix de l'or a commencé à grimper au premier semestre 2008, lorsque les marchés émergents étaient en surchauffe, que l'inflation les menaçait et que les prix des matières premières flambaient. Ce premier enchérissement était déjà une bulle, qui a éclaté au second semestre 2008, lorsque l'économie mondiale est entrée en récession.
Lisez l'article de N. Roubini dans Les Echos.fr ici.
Sociaal vangnet voor ontslagen werknemers
Veelgestelde vragen over werkloosheid en ontslag — De crisis laat zich voelen, nu ook bij de werknemers. Al maanden regent het ontslagen bij grote en kleine bedrijven. Bij DHL, Opel, Brinks, Sanoma, Bayer, UCB, Recticel… moeten talloze werknemers op zoek naar een andere job. Hoe sterk is het sociale vangnet waarop werklozen kunnen terugvallen? Drie experts geven een antwoord op de meest gestelde vragen. Lees het volledige artikel in De Standaard hier.
Au-delà du PIB: réconcilier ce qui compte et ce que l'on compte
Le PIB est au coeur d'une tourmente. son statut de cible et de repère pour la conduite et l'évaluation des politiques économiques est remis en question. De nouveaux indicateurs tentent de pallier ses lacunes au regard d'objectifs de qualité de vie, de réduction des inégalités, de développement durable. La Commission Stiglitz a récemment rendu un Rapport à ce sujet, document qui suscite de nouvelles questions et invite à poursuivre le débat.
Lisez cet article de Regards économiques (UCL) ici.
vrijdag 18 december 2009
Pass the Bill
Yes, the filibuster-imposed need to get votes from “centrist” senators has led to a bill that falls a long way short of ideal. Worse, some of those senators seem motivated largely by a desire to protect the interests of insurance companies — with the possible exception of Mr. Lieberman, who seems motivated by sheer spite. Read Krugman's column in The NYTimes here.
ObamaCare and the Liberal Obsession
If President Obama's health-care initiative fails, there is no longer a rationale for being a liberal in the United States. Everything else on liberalism's to-do list is footnotes. Read the complete column in the WSJ here.
FISCALE FRAUDE KOST DE BURGER EIGENLIJK NIETS
Kost fiscale fraude de eerlijke belastingbetaler geld? Niet volgens WILLY DE WIT. Veel te hoge belastingen, dat kost ons geld. Als de overheid daar iets aan zou doen, dat zou pas fraudebestrijding zijn. Lees het volledige opiniestuk in De Standaard hier.
woensdag 16 december 2009
Public and private pensions: lessons from the crisis
This Policy Brief considers the lessons to be drawn from the crisis for both public and private pensions in Europe. The author, Agnes Streissler, points out that both pay-as-you-go and funded systems are dependent on economic growth and are under pressure because of demographic changes. At the same time, private systems are considerably more risky in terms of the entitlements of successive cohorts leaving the labour market.
Read this article from ETUI here.
Lutte contre la pauvreté, rapport 2008-2009
Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index is a new initiative to compare pension systems around the world. Retirement income systems perform a critical role for both individuals and societies as countries grapple with the social and economic effects of ageing populations. There is no perfect system that can be applied universally around the world. Indeed, even comparing the diversity of retirement income systems is certain to be controversial as every system is different and has arisen from each country’s particular economic, social, cultural, political and historical circumstances. However there are certain features and characteristics of retirement income systems that are likely to lead to improved benefits, an increased likelihood of future sustainability of the system, and a greater level of confidence and trust within the community.
Read the full report here.
European competitiveness report 2009
The 2009 edition of the European Competitiveness Report looks at the possible implications of the economic downturn; in particular for productivity and for some of the determinants of future EU competitiveness: the evolution of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China); the role of high-skilled migration; the extent and conditions under which training can boost productivity; and the role of product and labour market regulations in influencing ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) investment.
Read the complete report here.
‘Tobin-taks? Een verschrikkelijk idee!’
Kapitaalmarktenlobby ICMA: ‘Taks op financiële transacties nefast voor marktwerking’ ‘Europa staat verder dan VS in macro-prudentieel toezicht’. Lees het volledige artikel in De Tijd hier.
Beleid tegen werkloosheid mist globale visie
De ruzie tussen de Vlaamse en de federale regering over het banenplan van minister van Werk Joëlle Milquet (cdH) is bijgelegd. Politiek heeft iedereen zijn slag thuisgehaald. De grote vraag is of er ook sociaal-economisch echte vooruitgang is geboekt. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Freddy Heylen hier.
‘Wat we verloren hebben in de crisis dreigen we nooit meer in te halen’
Caroline Ven, kabinetschef premier Yves Leterme, en adjunct-directeur CD&V Niko Gobbin luiden de alarmbel in hun boek ‘De welvaartsval’. Lees het volledige interview in De Tijd hier.
maandag 14 december 2009
Voorzorgsprincipe blijft iets absurds hebben
Het ‘voorzorgsprincipe’ schraagt al twee decennia politieke beslissingen omdat wetenschappelijke zekerheid ontbreekt. Je afvragen wat er mis mee is, lijkt op ketterij en het intrappen van open deuren. Onaanvaardbare rampen die op ons af lijken te komen, vergen toch buitengewone tegenmaatregelen? Maar klimaatmodellen zijn geen voorspellingen, en dus nemen we beter ook dat voorzorgsprincipe met een flinke korrel zout. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Freeman Dyson in De Tijd hier.
Paul A. Samuelson, Economist, Dies at 94
That lesson was reinforced in 2008, when the international economy slipped into the steepest downturn since the Great Depression, when Keynesian economics was born. When the Depression began, governments stood pat or made matters worse by trying to balance fiscal budgets and erecting trade barriers. But 80 years later, having absorbed the Keynesian teaching of Mr. Samuelson and his followers, most industrialized countries took corrective action, raising government spending, cutting taxes, keeping exports and imports flowing and driving short-term interest rates to near zero. Read the complete article on Samuelson's life and work in the NYTimes here.
Les technologies vertes juste derrière l’automobile ?
Les technologies vertes, que la Chine développe à grand pas, sont en passe de devenir le troisième secteur industriel mondial d’ici 2020, derrière l’automobile et l’électronique, selon une étude publiée par le Fonds mondial pour la nature (WWF).
Lisez l'article dans Le Soir ici.
Lisez le rapport du WWF "Clean Economy, Living Planet" ici.
vrijdag 11 december 2009
Le désordre financier menace la reprise économique
La quasi-faillite de l'émirat de Dubaï, la grave dérive budgétaire de la Grèce, les craintes grandissantes sur la situation de l'Espagne, de l'Irlande et du Portugal, ainsi que la très mauvaise santé des pays baltes font redouter l'existence de bombes à retardement dans les comptes des Etats et les bilans des banques.
Lisez l'article complet dans Le Monde ici.
donderdag 10 december 2009
Greek Debt Poses a Danger to Common Currency
As economic indicators have improved, concern about the financial crisis has abated. But the next big problem could be approaching. Greece's public deficit is skyrocketing and the country may become insolvent. The effect on Europe's common currency could be dire. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International Edition here.
Falling Dollar Pushes Manufacturing Out of Europe
Production jobs have been moving out of Europe for years. But as the Daimler decision last week to move C-Class production to the US shows, the process is accelerating as the dollar becomes weaker. Companies from Airbus to ThyssenKrupp are opening factories in America to improve their bottom lines. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
A Chinese wind-power IPO
CHINA’S biggest producer of wind power, China Longyuan Power, is in essence a staid regulated utility. It buys turbines, erects them and sells the electricity they generate to China’s power distributors at prices fixed by the state. So why is its initial public offering next week on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange generating such excitement? Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Keynes in reverse
As more states resemble California, they threaten economic recovery. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
China’s Economic Power Unsettles the Neighbors
China has long claimed to be just another developing nation, even as its economic power far outstripped that of any other emerging country. Now, it is finding it harder to cast itself as a friendly alternative to an imperious American superpower. For many in Asia, it is the new colossus. Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
For Global Finance, Global Regulation
Europe led the way last year in facing down the global financial crisis, restructuring our banking system and strengthening the global financial system. The European Union was also at the forefront in calling for a new forum for economic cooperation of G-20 leaders. And from the outset of the crisis, it was Europe that promoted the fiscal stimulus—and sought to coordinate it globally—that has been a major factor in preventing recession becoming a world-wide depression. Read the complete opinion piece of Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy here.
A border tax to protect the global environment?
The costs and benefits of carbon tariffs have been extensively discussed in terms of competitiveness and carbon leakage. This column says global welfare should be the focus. EU tariffs against developing country exports would increase global welfare and the proceeds from the tariff could help poorer exporting countries reduce the carbon intensity of their economies.
Read the article from D. Gros on Vox.eu here.
Kick-starting the green innovation machine
Mitigating climate change while maintaining economic growth will require a wide portfolio of technologies. This column says too little has been done to turn on the “green innovation machine”. It says governments in developed economies should price carbon, subsidise research, and facilitate technology transfer to developing countries.
Read the article from P. Aghion on Vox eu here.
dinsdag 8 december 2009
The Skyscraper Index
Could it be that the building of record breaking Skyscrapers could be used as a tool to predict the onset of economic downturn? Read the complete article in ultranomics here.
maandag 7 december 2009
Long-term unemployment at historic height in the US
Read the complete CBPP Statement here.
The number of people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more continued to climb in November, and these long-term unemployed now are nearly 40 percent of total unemployment (see chart). Renewing the temporary assistance for unemployed workers scheduled to expire in less than a month and providing additional federal fiscal assistance to states remain at the top of the list of measures that policymakers should take to help jobless workers and speed the economic recovery. 
The number of people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more continued to climb in November, and these long-term unemployed now are nearly 40 percent of total unemployment (see chart). Renewing the temporary assistance for unemployed workers scheduled to expire in less than a month and providing additional federal fiscal assistance to states remain at the top of the list of measures that policymakers should take to help jobless workers and speed the economic recovery.
The complete WSJ environment report
HERE
Questions for Home Buyers
Here are 10 questions that prospective buyers or renters ought to ask to find out how green a house or apartment is
Courting Change
Environmental groups in China now have the ability to sue polluters. But will they?Keeping It
Frozen
In Alaska, a low-tech solution helps the ground stay cold enough, for now.
What Global Warming?
Look at the arguments the skeptics make—and how believers respond.#
What's New
The latest on alternative-energy deals from Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight
In Search of Net Zero
The National Renewal Energy Laboratory wants to be the greenest commercial building in the country. Here's how.
Who Wants What in Copenhagen
Each country coming to Copenhagen has its own agenda. Here's why an agreement is so difficult.
Reach For the Sky
Scientists in Delft believe that clouds hold the key to unlocking predictions about climate change.
Questions for Home Buyers
Here are 10 questions that prospective buyers or renters ought to ask to find out how green a house or apartment is
Courting Change
Environmental groups in China now have the ability to sue polluters. But will they?Keeping It
Frozen
In Alaska, a low-tech solution helps the ground stay cold enough, for now.
What Global Warming?
Look at the arguments the skeptics make—and how believers respond.#
What's New
The latest on alternative-energy deals from Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight
In Search of Net Zero
The National Renewal Energy Laboratory wants to be the greenest commercial building in the country. Here's how.
Who Wants What in Copenhagen
Each country coming to Copenhagen has its own agenda. Here's why an agreement is so difficult.
Reach For the Sky
Scientists in Delft believe that clouds hold the key to unlocking predictions about climate change.
An Affordable Truth
"The truth, however, is that cutting greenhouse gas emissions is affordable as well as essential. Serious studies say that we can achieve sharp reductions in emissions with only a small impact on the economy’s growth. And the depressed economy is no reason to wait — on the contrary, an agreement in Copenhagen would probably help the economy recover.
[...]
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that by 2050 the emissions limits in recent proposed legislation would reduce real G.D.P. by between 1 percent and 3.5 percent from what it would otherwise have been. If we split the difference, that says that emissions limits would slow the economy’s annual growth over the next 40 years by around one-twentieth of a percentage point — from 2.37 percent to 2.32 percent".
Read Krugman's piece in the NYTimes here.
[...]
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that by 2050 the emissions limits in recent proposed legislation would reduce real G.D.P. by between 1 percent and 3.5 percent from what it would otherwise have been. If we split the difference, that says that emissions limits would slow the economy’s annual growth over the next 40 years by around one-twentieth of a percentage point — from 2.37 percent to 2.32 percent".
Read Krugman's piece in the NYTimes here.
The oil price and the macroeconomy: What’s going on?
In the 1970s, large increases in the price of oil were associated with sharp decreases in output and large increases in inflation. In the 2000s, even larger increases in the price of oil were associated with much milder movements. This column attributes the difference in the US to more flexible labour markets and more credible monetary policy during the Great Moderation.
Read the article from O. Blanchard on Vox.eu here.
Why a cap-and-trade system can be bad for your health
The purpose of a cap-and-trade system is to help in the fight against global climate change. This column warns that a unilateral approach could increase global emissions by shifting production to more carbon-intensive methods abroad. Acting alone, the EU’s Emission Trading Scheme may be doing more harm than good.
Read the article from D. Gros on Vox.eu here.
Qui pollue le plus?
Selon le Programme de l'ONU pour le développement (PNUD), moins de 3% des Burundais ou des Tchadiens ont le courant et 13% à peine en Birmanie ou en Afghanistan.
Lisez l'article dans LLB ici.
vrijdag 4 december 2009
Arbeidsmarkt maakt herstel kwetsbaar
Er komt een economisch herstel in 2010, maar er zijn factoren die dat prille herstel de kop in kunnen duwen. Dat is de boodschap die Anton Brender, hoofdeconoom van de vermogensbeheerder Dexia Asset Management, meegaf tijdens de voorstelling van zijn vooruitzichten voor volgend jaar. Onder andere een verdere stijging van de euro en een kwetsbare arbeidsmarkt zijn factoren die een rem kunnen vormen. Lees het volledige artikel in De Tijd hier.
Reform or Else
Health care reform hangs in the balance. Its fate rests with a handful of “centrist” senators — senators who claim to be mainly worried about whether the proposed legislation is fiscally responsible. Read Krugman's column in the NYTimes here.
Bernanke Says Fed ‘Should Have Done More’
Under fire from Democrats and Republicans alike, Ben S. Bernanke on Thursday defended his record as chairman of the Federal Reserve but conceded that the central bank’s lapses contributed to the financial crisis. Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
Quel Etat pour quelles performances économiques?
La crise financière a relancé le débat sur le rôle de l'Etat dans le système économique, et cela sous l’angle tant de la gestion de situations d'urgence que de la politique industrielle. Le XVIIIe Congrès des Economistes belges de langue française a apporté sa contribution au débat. Il est logique que l’accent des contributions ait été mis sur les défis, sur les faiblesses et sur les manquements. Ceci ne doit toutefois pas masquer les atouts de nos régions et les progrès observés dans différents domaines de l’intervention publique. Du domaine de la formation à la qualité des modes d’organisation de la vie économique, l’accent placé ici sur la politique économique ne doit pas faire oublier que la responsabilité qui est engagée n’est pas uniquement celle des hommes et des femmes politiques mais bien celle de chacun.
Consultez le rapport ici.
Marx, Bayer en de bonden
Lonen bevriezen is niet leuk, maar de werknemers in de chemiesector behoren tot de best betaalde groep in ons land. En dat van dat langer werken is ook een beetje een apart geval, aangezien een werkweek bij Bayer er al na 33,6 uur op zit. Het voorstel is nu om 35,2 uur per week te presteren. Stel u voor. De vakbonden noemen dat onbespreekbaar. Ik noem dat onvoorstelbaar. Lees de volledige column van Lorin Parys in De Standaard hier.
donderdag 3 december 2009
Europe Bypassed on Climate Summit
No political entity has pushed harder for the Copenhagen conference on climate change to succeed than the European Union. But just days before the opening of the United Nations-sponsored meeting, the Europeans have been largely pushed to the sidelines, watching as the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China and the United States, seek to set the rules of the game. Read the complete article in The NYTimes here.
The Call From the Swiss Minaret
Read the complete opinion piece from Claudio Cordone, senior director of Amnesty International, in The NYTimes here.
A Vote for Intolerance
Disgraceful. That is the only way to describe the success of a right-wing initiative to ban the construction of minarets in Switzerland, where 57 percent of voters cast ballots for a bigoted and mean-spirited measure. Read the complete editorial of The NYTimes here.
Les éoliennes les plus puissantes de la planète sont belges
Les éoliennes les plus puissantes de la planète (6 MW chacune) sont implantées à Estinnes-au-Mont, près de Binche. Propriété de la société belgo-néerlandaise WindVision, ces machines de fabrication allemande (Enercon) affichent des dimensions colossales : 198 mètres jusqu'à la pointe de la pale et un diamètre de 127 mètres !
Lisez l'article dans Le Vif ici.
woensdag 2 december 2009
Grote afwezige op Citibankproces
"Het is een stresstest voor de Belgische instellingen die toezicht houden op de banken." Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Hans Bonte in De Morgen hier.
dinsdag 1 december 2009
Climate change A heated debate
"This newspaper believes that global warming is a serious threat, and that the world needs to take steps to try to avert it. That is the job of the politicians. But we do not believe that climate change is a certainty. There are no certainties in science. Prevailing theories must be constantly tested against evidence, and refined, and more evidence collected, and the theories tested again. That is the job of the scientists. When they stop questioning orthodoxy, mankind will have given up the search for truth. The sceptics should not be silenced." Read the complete article in The Economist here.
De Zwitsers zijn bang
WIE DURFT EEN PLURALISTISCH BELEID NOG AAN? — 'De beslissing van mijn landgenoten om minaretten te verbieden, wordt ingegeven door angst', schrijft TARIQ RAMADAN. En ook de rest van en de rest van Europa schrikt terug voor een moedig beleid, gericht op religieus en cultureel pluralisme. Lees het opiniestuk in de Standaard hier.
Europese soloslim in Kopenhagen dodelijk voor Vlaamse jobs
Eurosceptici durven nog te vloeken in de klimaatkerk. De EU wil het voortouw nemen in Kopenhagen, maar wat zijn de gevolgen voor onze economie? Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Dedecjer eb Eppink in De Tijd hier.
maandag 30 november 2009
UK: Skills for Growth
Read more about this national strategy for economic growth and individual prosperity here.
The Dubai crisis
The tragedy of the black hole in Dubai’s finances is that it has dealt a blow not only to its own reputation but to that of the United Arab Emirates — and beyond that to the Arab Gulf as a whole. One might even go so far as to say that it has dealt a painful blow to the entire Arab world. Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
The Jobs Imperative
If you’re looking for a job right now, your prospects are terrible. There are six times as many Americans seeking work as there are job openings, and the average duration of unemployment — the time the average job-seeker has spent looking for work — is more than six months, the highest level since the 1930s. Read Krugman's column in the NYTimes here.
Open Source as a Model for Business Is Elusive
In many ways, MySQL embodies the ideals of the populist software movement known as open source, in which a program’s creator releases it to the world free of charge, and legions of volunteers contribute improvements that are also freely shared. Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
"Il faut un marché du carbone mondial"
L’accord qui pourrait aboutir à Copenhague risque d’être insatisfaisant. L’essentiel est qu’il jette les bases solides d’une politique écologique mondiale.
Lisez l'article complet dans LLB ici.
vrijdag 27 november 2009
We are all Belgians now
EUROPE, it is said, must resist the temptation to become a giant Switzerland: ie, a smug, rich, insular place. But judging by the antics of European leaders as they filled two top European Union jobs on November 19th, the club faces another danger altogether: becoming a giant Belgium. Read the complete column in The Economist here.
Taxing the Speculators
Should we use taxes to deter financial speculation? Yes, say top British officials, who oversee the City of London, one of the world’s two great banking centers. Other European governments agree — and they’re right. Read Krugman's column in The New York Times here.
donderdag 26 november 2009
Global Warming With the Lid Off
So apparently wrote Phil Jones, director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU) and one of the world's leading climate scientists, in a 2005 email to "Mike." Judging by the email thread, this refers to Michael Mann, director of the Pennsylvania State University's Earth System Science Center. We found this nugget among the more than 3,000 emails and documents released last week after CRU's servers were hacked and messages among some of the world's most influential climatologists were published on the Internet. Read the complete opinion article in the WSJ here.
Where does energy R&D come from?
How will proposed increases in energy R&D funding affect other types of R&D spending? This column provides evidence that should dampen concerns about crowding out – increased R&D in response to policies designed to enhance clean-energy innovation most likely comes at the expense of R&D in dirty-energy technologies.
Read this article from D. Popp on Vox.eu here.
woensdag 25 november 2009
246,000 foreign students are studying science, engineering and mathematics at American universities.
Read the complete DLC trade fact here.
dinsdag 24 november 2009
Merci d'avance, Yves!
FRANSTALIG BELGIE VERWELKOMT DE NIEUWE LETERME — Is er dan echt geen alternatief voor een terugkeer als premier van Yves Leterme? Natuurlijk wel, CHRISTOPHE DEBORSU kan er zo twee noemen. Maar het valt hem ook op dat geen enkele Waalse partij een veto uitsprak tegen Leterme. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Christophe de Borsu hier.
Payback time The European Union lashes out at hedge funds and private equity
WHEN a fight breaks out in a bar, you don’t hit the man who started it. You clobber the person you don’t like instead.” That is the cynical verdict of a fund-management executive on the European Union’s proposed Alternative Investment Fund Managers directive. Even though the credit crunch was largely the fault of (highly regulated) banks, politicians seized the chance to have a pop at the unpopular hedge-fund and private-equity industries. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Europe's public finances Weighed down
THE BAD thing for politicians about good news on the economy is that they can no longer avert their eyes from the state of public finances. Figures released on November 13th showed that the euro-area economy crawled out of recession in the three months to the end of September. GDP rose by 0.4%, the first quarterly increase for more than a year. Given the scale of the downturn, the recovery is modest: GDP was still 4.1% lower than a year earlier. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
The Coming Deficit Disaster
The president says he understands the urgency of our fiscal crisis, but his policies are the equivalent of steering the economy toward an iceberg. President Barack Obama took office promising to lead from the center and solve big problems. He has exerted enormous political energy attempting to reform the nation's health-care system. But the biggest economic problem facing the nation is not health care. It's the deficit. Recently, the White House signaled that it will get serious about reducing the deficit next year—after it locks into place massive new health-care entitlements. This is a recipe for disaster, as it will create a new appetite for increased spending and yet another powerful interest group to oppose deficit-reduction measures. Read the complete column in the WSJ here.
Technology Is Stranger Than Fiction
In a time of great change, fiction can sometimes provide better understanding than facts alone. "As the pace of technological change accelerates, the job of the science fiction writer becomes not harder, but easier—and more necessary," he writes. "After all, the more confused we are by our contemporary technology, the more opportunities there are to tell stories that lessen that confusion." Read the complete column in the WSJ here.
maandag 23 november 2009
Assurance hospitalisation trop chère ?
“Ne tirez pas sur le pianiste”, répond le secteur à Test-Achats. Et de pointer coût et vieillissement…
Lisez l'article complet dans LLB ici.
Lisez l'article complet dans LLB ici.
How much greenhouse gas emission abatement is enough?
Climate change will have widespread negative effects of uncertain magnitude. But this column argues that climate change is not humanity’s biggest challenge and needs to be solved without impeding economic development. It calls for a measured policy of greenhouse gas emission reduction.
Read this article from R. Tol on Vox.eu here.
Stabilities and instabilities in the macroeconomy
Economics lacks an anchored understanding of the nature of the reality that economics is supposed to illuminate. This column, which introduces a new CEPR Policy Insight, says that instability of leverage, connectivity, and the potential instability of the price level have all been neglected in stable-with-frictions macro theory. Technical innovations will not bring real progress as long as “stability-with-frictions” remains the ruling paradigm. Meanwhile, governments are not prepared to face another crisis.
Read this article from A. Leijonhufvud on Vox.eu here.
Large changes in fiscal policy: taxes versus spending
Read this paper from A. Alesina and S. Ardagna here.
Commerce : selon l'OMC, la crise n'a pas déclenché de vague protectionniste
La force et la soudaineté de la crise économique auraient pu pousser les pays à renouer avec le protectionnisme. "Cela ne s'est pas produit", constate l'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) dans le quatrième rapport de l'année qu'elle consacre à la surveillance des pratiques commerciales mondiales et qui a été publié le 18 novembre. Certes, il y a eu quelques branle-bas de combat douaniers dans les pays industrialisés comme dans les pays émergents. Mais l'OMC estime qu'aucun de ses membres "n'est retombé dans un protectionnisme à grande échelle et qu' il n'y a pas eu d'exemple significatif de riposte commerciale". Les restrictions aux échanges et les distorsions de concurrence n'ont pas concerné plus de 1 % des échanges mondiaux.
Le Monde, 20/11/2009
Consultez le rapport de l'OMC ici.
vrijdag 20 november 2009
Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out
Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Time for the greening of global trade
To suggest that free trade is destructive is to invite controversy. But the reality is that free trade must be constrained: it encourages the unrestrained consumption of goods and services, thereby playing a negative environmental role globally.
Read this article in the FT here.
November 2009: Monthly Labour Market Monitor
Unemployment continues to rise, job vacancies remain significantly lower than a year ago and companies continue to announce more job reductions than creation.
Moreover, the outlook for the coming months remains unfavourable. However, labour markets are showing tentative signs of stabilising in some Member States, while a relative improvement in confidence among businesses and consumers, including their employment and unemployment expectations, although still pessimistic, adds support to the view that the pace of economic and labour market deterioration is easing. In this month's edition there is a special focus on the health sector as well as an update on the situation in the automotive industry, previously reported on in the February issue.
Moreover, the outlook for the coming months remains unfavourable. However, labour markets are showing tentative signs of stabilising in some Member States, while a relative improvement in confidence among businesses and consumers, including their employment and unemployment expectations, although still pessimistic, adds support to the view that the pace of economic and labour market deterioration is easing. In this month's edition there is a special focus on the health sector as well as an update on the situation in the automotive industry, previously reported on in the February issue.
Read this EC report here.
donderdag 19 november 2009
Evaluating the Labor-Market Effects of Compulsory Military Service
Read the complete IZA paper here.
China's state-owned enterprises: Nationalisation rides again
Do state firms have too much power? A case in Hebei stirs debate. Read the complete piece in The Economist here.
Inventing a Better Patent System
Congress should add five amendments to existing statutes that would improve patent processing, reduce lawsuits and speed up the arrival of innovations on the market. Read the complete column in The NYTimes here.
Euro Solidarity With Eastern Europe
It's a shame that assistance efforts for the new member states are not EU-led but spearheaded by the IMF. Read Verhofstadt's opinion article in the WSJ here.
No Time to Read This? Read This
Many readers seem to think they do, based on the email response to my recent column on the importance of taking time off. Dozens asked me to recommend a time-management method that would help them get on top of their work and home duties. In response, I asked a half-dozen executive coaches to help me pick the most widely used time-management systems—not just software tools or high-tech to-do lists, but behavioral-change techniques that help people get organized, clarify thinking and increase output. Then, I tried out for a week each of the three methods they mentioned most often—including one that involved a ticking plastic tomato. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Evaluating the potential of solar technologies
Solar power is poised to grow into a reliable alternative energy source, promising lower carbon emissions and decreased dependence on fossil fuels. What technologies are currently jostling for leadership in the market?
Read this McKinsey article here.
The lingering effects of financial crises
Will the economic recovery be U-, V-, W-, or L-shaped? This column warns that recoveries from recessions caused by financial crises are slower than others, due to stressed credit conditions that persist even after output begins to recover. It thus recommends policies aimed at recapitalising financial institutions, resolving distressed financial assets, ensuring adequate provision of liquidity, and expediting bankruptcy proceedings.
Read the full article from P. Kannan on Vox.eu here.
The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary stimulus in depressions
There is one important source of information on the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal stimulus in an environment of near-zero interest rates, dysfunctional banking systems and heightened risk aversion that has not been fully exploited: the 1930s. This column gathers data on growth, budgets and central bank policy rates for 27 countries covering the period 1925-39 and shows that where fiscal policy was tried, it was effective.
Read the full article from B. Eichengreen et al on Vox.eu here.
Sudden financial arrest
How should governments respond to sudden failure of the financial system? This column says that it is neither credible nor desirable to refuse to assist the private sector in financial crises. It makes the case for massive provision of credible public insurance and guarantees to financial transactions and balance sheets – a financial defibrillator to respond to sudden financial arrest.
Read this full article from R. Caballero on Vox.eu here.
dinsdag 17 november 2009
De Islam is een deel van Vlaanderen
Europajournalist en publicist Paul Goossens schrijft Yves Desmet een antwoord op zijn essay over het islamdebat in ons land. "Als de islamcritici vaak makelaars in angst zijn, dan zijn er ook producenten van slachtofferschap die met mooie maatschappijanalyses, waarin zelfs een grond van waarheid zit, de illusie creëren dat je niet langer verantwoordelijk zou zijn voor je eigen daden", schreef Yves Desmet zaterdag in een opmerkelijk essay. Daarin legt hij onder meer uit waarom hij Paul Goossens tot die "producenten van slachtofferschap" rekent. Goossens heeft een repliek klaar. Lees het volledige opiniestuk in De Morgen hier.
maandag 16 november 2009
Indicatoren, doelstellingen en visies van duurzame ontwikkeling
Lees het vijfde rapport van het Federaal Planbureau hier.
The modest superpower
How the financial crisis could leave Europe even stronger than America. Read the complete article in Newsweek here.
«On ne tire aucune leçon de la crise de 2007»
Selon Geert Noels, Chief Economist de la société de conseil Econopolis, les banques centrales répètent les mêmes erreurs qu'en 2002 et hypothèquent sérieusement l'avenir.
Lisez l'article complet dans L'Echo ici.
vrijdag 13 november 2009
Improving Resolution Options for Systemically Relevant Financial Institutions
There are critical holes in the existing regulatory framework for handling large complex financial institutions that become impaired. This uncertainty makes it difficult for regulators to know the best way to restructure a financial institution or, indeed, whether restructuring is even feasible without enormous disruption. This Working Paper, the seventh in the Squam Lake Working Group series distributed by the Center for Geoeconomic Studies, endorses legislation that would give authorities the necessary powers to effect an orderly resolution of large complex financial institutions. As part of this authority, every such institution should be required to create its own rapid resolution plans, which would be subject to periodic regulatory scrutiny. These “living wills” would help authorities address the difficulties that might arise in a resolution. Read the complete article here.
Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is currently on a course toward creating another financial crisis. History shows that without changing course, countries with high actual and expected money growth, unsustainable budget deficits, and a currency expected to depreciate wind up in a crisis. The United States should commit to reducing future inflation and lowering future budget deficits to avoid a crisis and ultimately increase economic well-being. Read the complete AEI article here.
Economic theory and the financial crisis - An interview with Eric Mashkin
Read the complete interview in The Browser here.
Is Posner Right? An Empirical Test of the Posner Argument for Transferring Health Spending from Old Women to Old Men
Posner (1995) proposes the redistribution of health spending from old women to old men to
equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that women’s utility is
higher if they are married. Thus, extending the lifespan of men would benefit women. Using
life satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we conduct an
empirical test of this assumption. We apply a two-step estimation strategy: first, we use a
propensity score matching approach to generate a control group of non-widowed women.
The average level of life satisfaction in the control group serves as a reference to measure
the degree of adaptation to widowhood. In the second step, the life satisfaction trajectories of
both groups are estimated using penalized spline regressions. The results suggest
bereavement has no enduring effect on life satisfaction, and that falsifies Posner’s
assumption. Read the complete publication here.
equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that women’s utility is
higher if they are married. Thus, extending the lifespan of men would benefit women. Using
life satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we conduct an
empirical test of this assumption. We apply a two-step estimation strategy: first, we use a
propensity score matching approach to generate a control group of non-widowed women.
The average level of life satisfaction in the control group serves as a reference to measure
the degree of adaptation to widowhood. In the second step, the life satisfaction trajectories of
both groups are estimated using penalized spline regressions. The results suggest
bereavement has no enduring effect on life satisfaction, and that falsifies Posner’s
assumption. Read the complete publication here.
Disillusioned with Europe, Turkey Looks East
As European opposition to EU membership for Turkey grows, Ankara is looking to forge closer ties to its neighbors. Turkey wants to once again become a leading power in the Middle East -- but its relationship with Israel may suffer as a result. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Geert Wilders' One-Man Crusade against Islam
Geert Wilders wants to ban the Koran, impose a tax on headscarves and calculate the cost of immigration. The Dutch right-wing populist also plans to run for prime minister in 2011 -- and his party is currently leading in the polls. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International Edition here.
Single market bargaining
Why a deal on tax harmonisation might not boost support for the single market. Read the Charlemagne column in The Economist here.
Health-care reform: Passing the baton
One step forward for health reform. But even if they reach the finishing line, the Democrats face trouble in next year’s mid-terms. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Pour une école de la confiance
L'avant-projet de décret est une étape positive dans la reconstruction d’une école de la confiance. Eléments de réflexion sur une plateforme durable pour la réussite scolaire. Lisez la carte blanche dans La Libre Belgique ici.
donderdag 12 november 2009
In Istanbul - Islam en mensenrechten
De vergaderzaal van hotel Akgün baadt in een onbestemde tristesse. Dikke gordijnen houden het priemende zonlicht buiten, want dat zou weergaloze PowerPoint-presentaties kunnen verstoren. Over de tafels hangen lange witte kleden, met veel plooien en weelderige fronsen. Het lijkt wel een huwelijksfeest, een heel treurig weliswaar, waarbij de bruid verontschuldigd is en de bruidegom vergeet aanwezig te zijn. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Rik Torfs in de Standaard hier.
dinsdag 10 november 2009
Paranoia Strikes Deep
Last Thursday there was a rally outside the U.S. Capitol to protest pending health care legislation, featuring the kinds of things we’ve grown accustomed to, including large signs showing piles of bodies at Dachau with the caption “National Socialist Healthcare.” It was grotesque — and it was also ominous. For what we may be seeing is America starting to be Californiafied. Read Krugman's column in the NYTimes here.
Fighting Obesity May Take a Village
Exercise more. Avoid junk food. Such common-sense health advice has proved no match against the temptations of modern life, which have sent obesity rates around the world soaring. Now, government officials in a number of countries are pursing an aggressive new strategy: enlisting entire communities to insulate people from these temptations and make healthier choices easier. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Een meesterlijk stukje beeldvorming
SCHIET NIET OP DE PIANIST, MEVROUW HEMMERECHTS — Op haar weblog op de nieuwswebsite van de VRT trok schrijfster Kristien Hemmerechts van leer tegen een opiniestuk van LUCKAS VANDER TAELEN dat onlangs in deze krant verscheen. Dat vindt die laatste niet kunnen. Vander Taelen wilde de multiculturele problematiek in zijn gemeente aanklagen, en nu wordt hij plots zelf als dader afgeschilderd. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Lucas Vander Taelen hier.
vrijdag 6 november 2009
Kosten zorgleerlingen blijven stijgen, terwijl kennis over effecten beleid ontbreekt
De uitgaven voor het primair onderwijs in Nederland lopen de laatste jaren sterk op door leerlingen die extra zorgbegeleiding nodig hebben. Het aantal zogenaamde zorgleerlingen groeide van 80 duizend in 1997 naar ruim 100 duizend in 2007. Centraal in dit rapport staat de vraag wat de oorzaak is voor deze toename. Daarbij kijkt het rapport ook naar de mogelijke invloed van beleidsveranderingen hierop. De stijging van de uitgaven aan zorgleerlingen komt hoofdzakelijk door een verschuiving naar de duurdere vormen van speciaal onderwijs samen met een stijging van het aantal rugzakleerlingen. De achterliggende oorzaak is vermoedelijk voor een belangrijk deel nieuw beleid dat nieuwe gevallen aantrekt zonder dat het budget grenzen stelt aan de deelname. Tot slot, uit de inventarisatie blijkt dat weinig tot niets bekend is over de effectiviteit van het overheidsbeleid voor zorgleerlingen in termen van toekomstkansen of, breder, de maatschappelijke baten.
Lees het volledige rapport van Centraal Planbureau Nederland hier.
How to share the burden of combating climate change
Governments are bitterly divided about how advanced and developing economies should share the burdens of aggressive climate change mitigation. This column suggests a “do no harm” principle by which developing countries would be enabled to reduce their cost of mitigation to zero until they have eliminated abject poverty.
Read the full article from V.R. Joshi on Vox.eu here.
donderdag 5 november 2009
Calomiris on historical crisis lessons
Policymakers and macroeconomists often remind us that banking crises are nothing new. This column, based on recent papers by Columbia professor Charles Calomiris, looks at the long-term record of banking crises and draws lessons for today.
Read the article from R. Baldwin on Vox.eu here.
woensdag 4 november 2009
dinsdag 3 november 2009
Are health problem systemic? Politics of access and choice under Beveridge and Bismark systems
Read this working paper from IRDES here.
France: L'emploi des seniors désormais imposé par la loi
Pour la première fois, la loi de financement de la sécurité sociale inclut des sanctions financières à l'égard des entreprises qui ne se mobiliseraient pas en faveur de l'emploi des plus de 50 ans. Les intéressées ont peu de temps pour réagir et transformer ce qui semble être une contrainte en réelle opportunité.
Lisez l'article complet sur Novethic ici.
Crisis Compels Economists To Reach for New Paradigm
The pain of the financial crisis has economists striving to understand precisely why it happened and how to prevent a repeat. For that task, John Geanakoplos of Yale University takes inspiration from Shakespeare's "Merchant of Venice."
The play's focus is collateral, with the money lender Shylock demanding a particularly onerous form of recompense if his loan wasn't repaid: a pound of flesh. Mr. Geanakoplos, too, finds danger lurking in the assets that back loans. For him, the risk is that investors who can borrow too freely against those assets drive their prices far too high, setting up a bust that reverberates through the economy. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Le grand retour de la bulle spéculative
En voulant sauver l'économie mondiale, a-t-on fait naître une nouvelle bulle qui sera à l'origine de la prochaine crise ?
Lisez l'article complet dans Le Monde ici.
Government guarantees on bank funding: Should we extend them into 2010 despite the improved bank profitability and the schemes’ distortionary effects?
In December 2009, government guarantees on the issuance of bank bonds will close to new issuance in many EU countries. This column argues that the guarantees have been effective and should be extended into 2010, despite improved market conditions and bank profitability. In doing so, governments should correct the schemes for some distortionary effects and develop a careful exit strategy.
Read the full article from A. Levy and F. Panetta on Vox.eu here.
maandag 2 november 2009
Recent economische ontwikkelingen in Vlaanderen (Oktober 09)
Lees het volledige rapport van de Studiedienst van de Vlaamse Regering hier.
Will the current economic crisis lead to more retirements?
Since the crisis began, the economy has shed millions of jobs. This column explains how stock, housing, and labour market fluctuations affect retirement decisions. While wealthier workers will delay retirement, a larger number of workers will be forced into retirement because of their inability to find new jobs. This increased involuntary retirement will likely exceed any work-seeking effect of diminished stock market wealth by 50%.
Read this article from C.C. Coile and P.B.Levine on Vox.eu here.
Design and effectiveness of fiscal-stimulus programmes
The recent global recession has made the efficacy of fiscal-stimulus packages one of the most prominent policy debates in economics today. This column finds that the multiplier of defence spending falls in a range of 0.6 to 0.8 and argues that non-defence multipliers are unlikely to be larger. It says we should be sceptical when policymakers claim government-spending multipliers in excess of one and suggests tax cuts may be preferable to spending increases.
Read the full article from R. Barro and C. Redlick on Vox.eu here.
vrijdag 30 oktober 2009
Falling fertility
Astonishing falls in the fertility rate are bringing with them big benefits. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
A joyless recovery
THE American government reported on Thursday October 29th that gross domestic product rose at an annualised rate of 3.5% in the third quarter compared with the second. This was the first increase since the second quarter of 2008. It backs up other evidence that the recession ended in the third quarter or just before, though the official decision, by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists, is still some way off. Robert Gordon, a member of this group, is confident that the recession, which began in December 2007, ended in June. But at 18 months that would still make it the longest since 1933. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
donderdag 29 oktober 2009
Household saving rate at 16.5% in the euro area and 14.4% in the EU 27
Read this Eurostat release here.
9 of 10 Europeans want urgent action on poverty
Read the Eurobarometer Survey on Poverty and Social Exclusion from the EC here.
Interview with Charles Krauthammer 'Obama Is Average'
In a SPIEGEL interview, Charles Krauthammer, the leading voice of America's conservative intellectuals, discusses Barack Obama's Nobel Peace Prize, the president's failures and the state of the United Nations and the international community. Read the complete interview in Der Spiegel International here.
The price of cleanliness
China is torn between getting greener and getting rich
er. 
Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Financial crises are different! Refining the Reinhart-Rogoff estimates
Is the current turmoil unique? This column examines three decades of financial crises and says that it stands out. But the variation in past experiences suggests that the major economies may regain their pre-crisis levels of output by the second half of 2010.
Read this article from Cecchetti et al. on Vox.eu here.
Can renewable energy save the world?
Can renewable energy save the world from climate change, and do so at a reasonable cost? This column says we can replace some fossil fuel power with renewable power without a major cost increase, but we cannot hope to replace a major fraction of our fossil power with intermittent power sources such as wind and solar energy unless we can develop energy storage technologies.
Read the full article from G. Heal on Vox.eu here.
How to avoid a repeat of the Great Crash
The 80th anniversary of the Great Crash is upon us. This touches a nerve because we seemed to be looking into the same bottomless pit only a year ago. The chain of events, leading from a dramatic collapse in stock prices on Wall Street, beginning in late October 1929, to a Great Depression that engulfed the world economy for years, has suddenly leapt off the pages of the history books with an entirely fresh verisimilitude. Pessimists have asked, what is to stop it all happening again? Optimists have asked, what can we learn to stop it from doing so?
Read the full article in the FT here.
The Global Gender Gap Report 2009
Out of the 115 countries covered in the report since 2006, more than two-thirds have posted gains in overall index scores, indicating that the world in general has made progress towards equality between men and women, although there are countries that continue to lose ground.
Read this World Economic Forum report here.
woensdag 28 oktober 2009
Inburgering voor dummies
Marokko haalt meer inkomsten uit de diaspora dan uit zijn eigen economie.
INTEGRATIE VRAAGT MEER DAN EEN CURSUS NEDERLANDS — Zo lang via huwelijksmigratie de deuren van België wijd openstaan voor nieuwkomers en zo lang landen als Marokko profijt halen uit de slechte inburgering van hun uitwijkelingen, zal België integratieproblemen blijven hebben, voorspelt JEAN-MARIE DEDECKER. Dat los je op met nieuwe wetten, niet met een cursus Nederlands via internet. Lees het opiniestuk hier.
INTEGRATIE VRAAGT MEER DAN EEN CURSUS NEDERLANDS — Zo lang via huwelijksmigratie de deuren van België wijd openstaan voor nieuwkomers en zo lang landen als Marokko profijt halen uit de slechte inburgering van hun uitwijkelingen, zal België integratieproblemen blijven hebben, voorspelt JEAN-MARIE DEDECKER. Dat los je op met nieuwe wetten, niet met een cursus Nederlands via internet. Lees het opiniestuk hier.
Freaked Out Over SuperFreakonomics (and climate change)
Suppose for a minute—which is about 59 seconds too long, but that's for another column—that global warming poses an imminent threat to the survival of our species. Suppose, too, that the best solution involves a helium balloon, several miles of garden hose and a harmless stream of sulfur dioxide being pumped into the upper atmosphere, all at a cost of a single F-22 fighter jet.
Good news, right? Maybe, but not if you're Al Gore or one of his little helpers.
The hose-in-the-sky approach to global warming is the brainchild of Intellectual Ventures, a Bellevue, Wash.-based firm founded by former Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Nathan Myhrvold. The basic idea is to engineer effects similar to those of the 1991 mega-eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, which spewed so much sulfuric ash into the stratosphere that it cooled the earth by about one degree Fahrenheit for a couple of years. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Efficient Market Theory and the Crisis
Neither the rating agencies' mistakes nor the overleveraging by financial firms was the fault of an academic hypothesis. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
dinsdag 27 oktober 2009
maandag 26 oktober 2009
U.S. Considers Reining In ‘Too Big to Fail’ Institutions
Congress and the Obama administration are about to take up one of the most fundamental issues stemming from the near collapse of the financial system last year — how to deal with institutions that are so big that the government has no choice but to rescue them when they get in trouble. Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
Do not ignore the need for financial reform
The philosophy that has helped me both in making money as a hedge fund manager and in spending it as a policy oriented philanthropist is not about money but about the complicated relationship between thinking and reality. The crash of 2008 has convinced me that it provides a valuable insight into the workings of the financial markets. ....
Read this article in the FT here.
Adjustments to the accountability and transparency of the European Central Bank
Governments are restructuring their financial supervision systems. This column warns that the proposed new structure for European financial supervision is poorly coordinated and will not help in a systemic crisis. It discusses how the ECB might coordinate macro-prudential supervision in the euro area.
Read the full article on Vox.eu here.
Een andere soort van staatshervorming
Luckas Vande Talen wil komaf maken met een rist overbodige instellingen. Lees het volledige opiniestuk in De Standaard hier.
vrijdag 23 oktober 2009
donderdag 22 oktober 2009
Lessons of the lat
The European Union should ease the way for small, troubled currencies to join the euro. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Betting on bytes
Optimism that tech firms will help kick-start economic recovery is overdone. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Exporters (good ones) don’t pass-through
The prices of tradable goods are remarkably insensitive to exchange rate movements. This column provides a firm-level explanation. In response to a depreciation, high-performance firms raise their mark-ups rather than their export volumes, and their choices dominate the aggregate export variables.
Read this article from N. Berman et al. on Vox.eu here.
« Les Etats-Unis n'échapperont pas à un second plan de relance », Kenneth Rogoff
Professeur à Havard et ex-chef économiste du FMI de 2001 à 2003, Kenneth Rogoff, qui est également l'auteur du livre « Huit Siècles de folie financière » (Princeton University Press), analyse les conséquences du déclin du dollar et les limites du plan de relance américain.
Lisez l'interview dans LesEchos.fr ici.
woensdag 21 oktober 2009
Les 14 points clés du Rapport « Sortie de crise : vers l’émergence de nouveaux modèles de croissance ? »
Lisez cet utile résumé du Centre d'Analyse Stratégique ici.
THE WORLD IN 2025
The recent development of the world context and the strong European commitments to a regulated globalisation argue in favour of a prospective analysis of the trends which will shape the international environment, the tensions which will structure its development in the coming decades and the transitions that Europe could contribute to promote it. Read the complete report (25p.) from the European Commission here.
Why the euro is not the next global currency
The explosion of debate on the demise of the dollar has been instructive, though vastly premature. What is striking, however, is the absence of the euro from talk of alternatives as the global currency. Currency baskets, SDRs, even internationalisation of the renminbi, have been mooted, but not the obvious alternative. ....
Read the full article in the FT here.
Rising Debt a Threat to Japanese Economy
How much debt can an industrialized country carry before the nation’s economy and its currency bow, then break?
The question looms large in the United States, as a surging budget deficit pushes government debt to nearly 98 percent of the gross domestic product. But it looms even larger in Japan.
[...]
Just paying the interest on its debt consumed a fifth of Japan’s budget for 2008, compared with debt payments that compose about a tenth of the United States budget.
Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
The question looms large in the United States, as a surging budget deficit pushes government debt to nearly 98 percent of the gross domestic product. But it looms even larger in Japan.
[...]
Just paying the interest on its debt consumed a fifth of Japan’s budget for 2008, compared with debt payments that compose about a tenth of the United States budget.
Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
dinsdag 20 oktober 2009
Energies : vers une période de transition cahotique, par Michael T. Klare
La période de transition entre énergies fossiles et renouvelables s’annonce agitée, avertit Michael T. Klare. Faute d’une conversion massive et rapide aux énergies nouvelles - qui paraît aujourd’hui peu vraisemblable - nos sociétés en seront réduites à compter de plus en plus sur des gisements « extrêmes », coûteux à exploiter, difficiles d’accès, certains situés dans des zones dangereuses, d’autres extrêmement polluants, dévastateurs pour l’environnement, et qui feront l’objet pour la plupart d’une compétition internationale acharnée, source de tensions géopolitiques.
Lisez l'article complet sur le site Contre Info.info ici.
Five Technologies That Could Change Everything
As the world tries to wean itself from dependence on fossil fuels, technological breakthroughs in these five areas could be a huge help. Read the complete WSJ energy report here.
Immigrant Scientists Create Jobs and Win Nobels
Of the nine people who shared this year's Nobel Prizes in chemistry, physics and medicine, eight are American citizens, a testament to this country's support for pioneering research. But those numbers disguise a more important story. Four of the American winners were born outside of the United States and only came here as graduate or post-doctoral students or as scientists. They came because our system of higher education and advanced research has been a magnet for creative talent. Read the complete opinion piece in the WSJ here.
Gratis begrotingstip? Bel Olaf
Nu de Belgische regering de strijd tegen fiscale en andere fraude weer eens uit de kast haalt, om gaten in de begroting dicht te rijden, geef ik de ministers van Justitie en Financiën graag een gratis tip: bel eens met Olaf. Hij is weliswaar pas tien, maar gespecialiseerd in fraudebestrijding. Met succes. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Bart Staes in De Tijd hier.
The Coming Energy Revolution
Electric cars, intelligent washing machines, mini power plants in your basement: Germany is on the verge of an energy revolution. SPIEGEL ONLINE looks at the latest developments in the smart grid and how it will change the relationship between consumers and energy suppliers.
Read the full article on Spiegel International (14/10/2009) here.
Démographie, l'exception française
Quel est le secret du "modèle français" ? Depuis quelques années, les démographes, les sociologues et les responsables politiques étrangers se penchent avec perplexité sur le cas de la France : à l'heure où l'Europe est touchée par un recul des naissances, ce pays est devenu le champion d'Europe de la fécondité.
Lisez l'article complet dans Le Monde ici.
maandag 19 oktober 2009
EU labour market continues to weaken
Although the outlook for the coming months remains unfavourable, labour markets are showing tentative signs of stablising in some EU countries as confidence among businesses and consumers continues to recover. The EU unemployment rate edged up to 9.1 % in August but the rate remained stable in five countries (Finland, Germany, Italy, Poland and Slovenia) and fell in another four (Austria, Denmark, Malta and Portugal). This month's report includes a special focus on the textile sector, which remains labour intensive and, like most manufacturing sectors, has been hit hard by the economic crisis.
Read this EC report here.
Les chiffres de la pauvreté
- 15% des Belges, soit environ 1 sur 7, vivent sous le seuil de pauvreté ;
- En matière de risque de pauvreté, on peut constater de grandes disparités sociales. Pour certaines d’entre elles, la Belgique présente un profil différent de ses principaux pays voisins. C’est notamment le cas pour les risques de pauvreté liés à l’âge ;
- Les chiffres provisoires de 2008 montrent une tendance à la hausse de la pauvreté subjective.
Consultez le communiqué de presse du SPF Economie du 17/10/2009 ici.
Subprime mortgages: Myths and reality
The global crisis is said to have originated in the US subprime mortgage market. This column argues that many of the most popular explanations that have emerged for the subprime crisis are, to a large extent, myths.
Read the full article from K. Cherny et al. on Vox.eu here.
The new global balance – Part II: Higher rates rather than weaker dollar in 2010
Many expect the dollar to continue to depreciate over the foreseeable future. This column suggests that it may strengthen in 2010 if the Federal Reserve exits quantitative easing sooner than its counterparts and the US economy enjoys a strong rebound.
Read the full article from C. Broda et al. on Vox.eu here.
vrijdag 16 oktober 2009
L'euro fort complique la sortie de crise de la zone euro
A peine sortie de la récession, l'économie européenne va devoir faire face à une hausse de l'euro, au moins jusqu'à la fin de l'année. Les ministres des Finances de la zone euro se pencheront lundi sur la question sans grand espoir de trouver une solution rapide.
Lisez l'article complet dans Les Echos.fr ici.
The rise of obesity in Europe: An economic perspective
Should the government intervene to reduce obesity on the basis of equity or efficiency? This column gives reasons to be sceptical common arguments for such interventions. Unless health insurance provision creates significant moral hazard problems that encourage obesity, there is little reason to attack obesity on the basis of health insurance externalities. Read the complete VOX article here.
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