woensdag 30 september 2009
Much ado about multipliers
Why do economists disagree so much on whether fiscal stimulus works?
Read the full article in The Economist here.
Read the full article in The Economist here.
La flexicurité en Belgique: une proposition basée sur des principes économiques
Lisez ce numéro de Regards Economiques (UCL) ici.
dinsdag 29 september 2009
Reinforcing the social dimension of the growth and jobs strategy
This report from the Social Protection Committee – which brings together experts from each EU country – finds that social protection systems have helped shield Europeans from the worst effects of the financial crisis. But it concludes that social protection alone is not enough to prevent poverty and exclusion, calling for more emphasis on goals such as fighting child poverty and promoting active inclusion. Further modernisation of social protection needs to be fully articulated with growth and jobs strategies.
Read this report here.
Quand la Chine consommera, par Martin Wolf
La crise a réussi à la Chine. C'était évident lors du "Davos d'été", le Forum économique mondial qui s'est tenu à Dalian (Chine) début septembre. La confiance des Chinois était palpable. Mais aussi leur anxiété. ...
Lisez l'article complet ici.
De Callataÿ : « Ne pas faire payer la crise aux banques »
Le chief-economist de la banque Degroof, Etienne de Callataÿ était ce lundi l’invité d’un chat sur les pratiques bancaires, un an après la chute de Fortis. Il plaide pour une réforme du système financier.
Lisez l'article complet ici.
maandag 28 september 2009
Euro Health Consumer Index 2009
La Belgique se classe 11e - sur 33 pays européens - en matière de soins de santé, selon l'Euro Health Consumer Index (EHCI), une enquête sur les soins de santé en Europe dont les résultats ont été publiés lundi. Avec ce résultat, le Royaume gagne une place par rapport à l'année passée.
Il ressort notamment de l'enquête, menée par le groupe de réflexion Health Consumer Powerhouse, soutenu par l'Union européenne, que la Belgique gagne des points grâce aux délais limités nécessaires pour accéder aux différents services proposés. Par contre, elle figure parmi les mauvais élèves en matière d'e-santé.
"Les Belges ont un accès aisé aux soins de santé", a expliqué Arne Björnberg, le responsable d'EHCI. "La Belgique est également un des seuls pays européens où les patients ont véritablement le choix de l'endroit où ils vont se faire soigner. Néanmoins, les résultats médicaux ne sont pas suffisamment bons pour que le pays entre dans le Top 10", a-t-il ajouté.
Le classement est dominé par les Pays-Bas, devant le Danemark, l'Islande et l'Autriche alors que la Roumanie et la Bulgarie ferment la marche.(7sur7, 28/09/09)
Consultez le rapport ici.
Conseil supérieur des finances: la politique fiscale et l'environnement
Lisez ce rapport du CSF ici.
Global capital markets: entering a new era
The current financial crisis and worldwide recession have abruptly halted a nearly three-decade-long expansion of global capital markets. After nearly quadrupling in size since 1980, world financial assets—including equities, private and public debt, and bank deposits—fell by $16 trillion last year to $178 trillion in 2008, the largest setback on record.
Read the full article and find the report from McKinsey & Company here.
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Read the complete report from the European Commission here.
Alternative assessment of Belgian competitiveness
This paper investigates graphically and econometrically the relationship between the relative positions, in terms of value added and relative prices, of Belgian manufacturing and market services in the European Union over 1970-2005. Relative prices are then decomposed into relative unit costs of factors of production. The analysis goes further by replacing relative unit labour cost with relative hourly wages and relative productivity. Finally, relative produc-tivity is replaced with relative capital deepening, relative labour composition effect and relative total factor productivity. All data are coming from the EUKLEMS database, March 2008 release.
Read the complete report here.
The long-lasting effects of the economic crisis
Economic events can have long-lasting non-economic effects. This column shows how economic circumstances affect individuals’ life-long beliefs. Individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that success in life depends more on luck than on effort and support more government redistribution, but they are less confident in public institutions. The current severe recession may be forming a generation that is more risk-averse and believes more in redistribution.
Read the full article here.
Will the BRICs (read: China) really become the new global growth engine?
Can the BRICs replace the much-touted US consumer as the world’s main growth engine? This column says the Chinese economy will continue to increase relative to all others, while the US share of global output will stagnate. But while China’s relative contribution to global growth will increase, it won’t be “driving” growth in the developed economies.
Read the full article here.
donderdag 24 september 2009
Political incapacity slows Belgium down
Three international reports indicate that Belgium’s federal and regional governments are the weakest links for the development of its economy. Even though Belgium is relatively thriving, governments do little to nothing to keep it that way. Moreover, the quality of government will be crucial in the future, as policy-making is increasingly transferred to international levels. Apart from innovation-related activities in the field of education, Belgian investments in research and development could more or less be disregarded. Also, to attract foreign investment, Belgium’s governments must work in an efficient and stable manner.
Priorities for a Prosperous Belgium
Take a look at their brand new publication and check out AmCham Belgium’s recommendations to Belgium’s policy makers on how to strengthen Belgium’s positioning to take advantage of the eventual upturn in the global economy!
Read the full report here.
Agoria veut que notre pays soit champion des coûts de R&D en Europe
Agoria, la fédération de l’industrie technologique, a réalisé une étude approfondie sur le coût de la R&D dans notre pays et chez nos voisins de France, des Pays-Bas et d’Allemagne. Ceux-ci sont nos principaux concurrents lorsqu’il s’agit d’attirer des investissements.
Pour en savoir plus, cliquez ici.
woensdag 23 september 2009
EU employment situation and social outlook: September 2009
Read the European Commission report here.
UUU, de jongste telg in de economen-lettersoep
Norbert Walter, de afscheidnemende hoofdeconoom van Deutsche Bank, is bepaald somber over de toekomst. Hij voorspelt een economisch herstel in UUU-vorm. En helaas zijn we nog maar aan het tweede beentje van de eerste U. Lees het volledige artikel in De Tijd hier.
Médicaments: l’arbre qui cache la forêt?
A l'heure où la norme de croissance des soins de santé est sous pression et perd son soutien dans pas mal de milieux politiques et industriels, il ne faudrait pas perdre le support sociétal pour un système d'assurance-maladie performant et des soins de santé qui délivrent santé et bien-être à notre population.
Lisez l'article complet ici.
dinsdag 22 september 2009
To Explain Longevity Gap, Look Past Health System
If you’re not rich and you get sick, in which industrialized country are you likely to get the best treatment?Read the complete article here.
maandag 21 september 2009
Global Economic Prospects as of September 2009: Onward to Global Recovery
Read this publication from the Peterson Institute for International Economics here.
L’impasse du capitalisme
Il est au confluent des crises socio-économique et écologique, selon H. Kempf.
Lisez son interview ici.
Reform or Bust
Putting limitations on how bankers are compensated is a populist idea, but it is also good politics and good economics. Read Krugman's column in the NYTimes here.
vrijdag 18 september 2009
Slim saneren = jobs creëren
Een crisisbelasting voor de banken, scherpere controles bij zelfstandigen, snijden in het ambtenarenbestand…: iedereen graait vooral in andermans portefeuille om de put in de federale begroting, geschat op 25 miljard euro, te dempen. Vacature zoekt uit wat er écht moet gebeuren op vlak van de openbare sector, gezondheidszorg, fiscaliteit en werk. En of dat gepaard gaat met de toename of afname van jobs. Lees het volledige artikel hier.
The Policy Views of American Economic Association Members: The Results of a New Survey
Read the complete article from the Economic Journal Watch here.
It's Business as Usual Again for Wall Street's Casino Capitalists
Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Tobin taxes: The wrong tool for the job
A global tax on financial transactions would make it harder to deal with troublesome banks. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
woensdag 16 september 2009
The portfolio effects of pension reforms
Pensions reforms are shifting retirement burdens onto private households. How will they respond? This column uses Italian data to show that households better informed about their future entitlements save more for retirement, but private wealth increases considerably less than one-for-one with the social security decreases.
Read the full article here.
Belgische auto’s stootten 3,2% minder CO2 uit
De in België verkochte auto’s stootten vorig jaar 3,2 procent minder CO2 per kilometer uit dan in 2007. Dat blijkt uit een onderzoek van Transport & Environment (T&E). De organisaties Bond Beter Leefmilieu, Komimo en Greenpeace vragen dat Europa ook verplichte doelstellingen oplegt voor bestelwagens.
Lees het volledige artikel hier.
dinsdag 15 september 2009
STIMULUS KEEPING 6 MILLION AMERICANS OUT OF POVERTY IN 2009, ESTIMATES SHOW
See the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities findings' here.
L'Amérique en panne d'innovation
Alors que l'Amérique subit la crise de façon particulièrement brutale (chômage de masse, décroissance, chute du marché immobilier, etc.), elle se pose aujourd'hui, avec inquiétude, la question de sa compétitivité en matière d'innovation technologique. Pourquoi celle-ci, qui fut le moteur de sa croissance exceptionnellement longue et régulière depuis trois décennies, ne lui a-t-elle pas permis, si ce n'est de passer à travers les gouttes, du moins de s'en sortir mieux que les grands pays concurrents ? ....
Lisez l'article complet ici.
Dutch Coverage
Holland has abandoned the 'public option' that Obama seeks for the U.S. Read the complete article here.
Germany Scores an Own Goal on Immigration
Migration helps us build a more integrated, dynamic Continental economy. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
G20 governments refrain from extensive use of restrictive measures, but some slippage evident
G20 Governments have refrained from extensive use of restrictive trade and investment measures in recent months but have continued, in a limited way, to apply tariffs and non-tariff instruments that have hindered trade flows, the heads of the OECD, UNCTAD and the WTO indicated in a joint report to G-20 leaders meeting in Pittsburgh later this month. Read the complete report here.
maandag 14 september 2009
Hallucinante woorden
Lees het commentaarstuk van Peter Vandermeersch over de begrotingsinspanningen hier.
La taxe carbone au crible de la charge fiscale : leçons de l’étranger
Injuste et anti-économique, la taxe carbone aurait-elle le mérite de faire baisser les autres impôts ? C’est ce que prétendent ses artisans. En observant le mode d’emploi de la taxe carbone dans plusieurs pays européens, Maître Jean Philippe DELSOL, administrateur de l’IREF, dépose des conclusions plutôt sceptiques.
Lisez l'article complet ici.
France: La taxe carbone, menace pour les ressources fiscales
Lisez l'article complet dans Les Echos ici.
Quelle vie après le PIB ?
La plupart des économistes en sont convaincus, la notion de produit intérieur brut ne suffit plus à mesurer la performance économique. Mais comment prendre en compte, outre la production de richesse, les inégalités sociales, la qualité de la vie, celle de l'environnement ? Le prix Nobel américain Joseph Stiglitz remet aujourd'hui à Nicolas Sarkozy son rapport sur le sujet.
Lisez l'article complet ici.
Fétichisme et PIB
S'efforcer de ressusciter l'économie de la planète tout en réagissant au changement climatique soulève une épineuse question : les statistiques sont-elles de bons indicateurs de ce qu'il faut faire ? Dans un monde orienté vers la performance, les instruments de mesure ont pris une importance accrue : ce que l'on mesure affecte nos actions. ....
Lisez l'article complet ici.
'Banken groter probleem dan vóór crisis'
'Het financiële systeem vormt een groter probleem voor de gezondheid van de wereldeconomie dan voor de crisis.' Dat is de mening van de voormalige hoofdeconoom van de Wereld Bank, Joseph Stiglitz. Overheden wereldwijd, en de VS in het bijzonder, hebben volgens Stiglitz nagelaten het banksysteem te hervormen na de implosie van Lehman Brothers en de kredietcrisis.
Lees het artikel hier.
'Bij Belgische banken hoor ik weer hartslag'
Neelie Kroes, de Europese commissaris voor Mededinging, laat zich hoopvol uit over de toekomst van de Belgische banken. 'De situatie was kritiek in België, maar ik vind al bij al dat wat er in de steigers gezet is, hoop geeft. Bij elk van mijn Belgische patiënten hoor ik weer een hartslag', zegt ze in een interview in De Tijd.
Lees het artikel in DS hier.
Climat: "Il ne faut pas jouer avec le feu"
Spécialiste de l'évolution du climat, Jean Jouzel martèle l'urgence de réduire nos émissions de CO2. Deux degrés, c'est déjà un changement majeur.
Lisez son interview complète ici.
vrijdag 11 september 2009
donderdag 10 september 2009
Judging Downturns
A teacher emails a query to Greg Mankiw:
I am a U.S. history teacher and an avid reader of your blog, and I have a question which you might want to address (again) in your blog. I came across a story saying that we were coming out of "our worst recession since the 1930s." This strikes me as curious, considering our unemployment levels are not as high as the 1982 recession, I don't think. By your reckoning, assuming the worst has passed, has this been the worst since the 1930s? That raises a bigger issue:what standard should one use to "judge" a recession?
Read his answer here.
I am a U.S. history teacher and an avid reader of your blog, and I have a question which you might want to address (again) in your blog. I came across a story saying that we were coming out of "our worst recession since the 1930s." This strikes me as curious, considering our unemployment levels are not as high as the 1982 recession, I don't think. By your reckoning, assuming the worst has passed, has this been the worst since the 1930s? That raises a bigger issue:what standard should one use to "judge" a recession?
Read his answer here.
Why the public option matters
What is one to make of the practical, political argument that any public plan actually included in legislation probably wouldn't make that much difference, and that reform is worth having even without such a plan?
Read Krugman's article here.
Misdiagnosing the crisis: The real problem was not real, it was nominal
Do most macroeconomists hold views of this crisis that are entirely at variance with modern monetary economics? This column says that tight monetary policy caused the crisis. Economists seem not to believe what they teach about the fallacy of identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rates.
Read the complete article here.
L'économie ne ment pas, mais ne prédit pas l'avenir, par Guy Sorman
Pour ceux que l'économie agace et, plus encore, pour ceux que l'économie de marché insupporte, la récession est une aubaine : "Les Français n'ont pas la tête économique mais politique", écrivait Alexis de Tocqueville en 1848. A ce peu d'affinité pour l'économie s'ajoutent chez nous une aversion pour le capitalisme et un penchant pour l'intervention forte de l'Etat. Accuser les économistes de n'avoir pas prévu la crise et les libéraux de l'avoir provoqué par leurs excès s'inscrit dans une bataille dont la science économique n'est pas le seul enjeu : l'économie et les économistes se trouvent au croisement de l'idéologie et de la science. ...
Lisez cet article dans Le Monde ici.
Si les économistes ont sous-estimé la crise, ce n'est pas par complicité avec les financiers, par Patrick Artus
Il semble que les économistes n'ont pas vu venir la crise, au moins l'ampleur de la crise, et ils le reconnaissent. Ceux qui, avant la crise, avaient une vision très pessimiste de l'avenir, la devaient à des mécanismes qui ne sont pas ceux qui se sont produits. Ils attendaient par exemple une crise du déficit extérieur des Etats-Unis et du dollar, et ce n'est qu'une fois la crise déclenchée qu'ils ont modifié leur analyse....
Lisez l'article complet ici.
woensdag 9 september 2009
'Industrialized Nations Are Facing CO2 Insolvency'
In a SPIEGEL ONLINE interview, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the German government's climate protection adviser, argues that drastic measures must be taken in order to prevent a catastrophe. He is proposing the creation of a CO2 budget for every person on the planet, regardless whether they live in Berlin or Beijing.
Read the full article here.
Increase in real pay plummets in all but four EU Member States in 2008
The average real wage increase for European workers fell from 3.6% in 2007 to 1.3% in 2008, according to new data published by Eurofound’s European Industrial Relations Observatory (EIRO). The annual update on pay developments in Europe 2008 recorded sizeable differences between EU Member States, with the rate of real increase falling sharply, and the nominal rate dropping only slightly. Wide differences emerge, however, between the various groups of countries within the EU, in terms of the level of real wage increases, with a broad east-west split.
Read the full press release and find the related report here.
Happiness as a tool for valuing public goods
If governments supply public goods that market forces will not, they ought to assign monetary values to those goods so that they can prioritise projects. This column discusses the difficulties of estimating those values using happiness surveys. Using a new method, it estimates that people value a one-standard-deviation improvement in air quality at $40.
Read the full article here.
Charge!
Carmakers are shifting towards electric vehicles. Policymakers must do their part, too. GREENS may not like it, but once people have enough to eat and somewhere tolerable to live, their thoughts turn to buying a car. The number of cars in the rich world will grow only slowly in the years ahead, but car ownership elsewhere is about to go into overdrive. Over the next 40 years the global fleet of passenger cars is expected to quadruple to nearly 3 billion. China, which will soon overtake America as the world’s biggest car market, could have as many cars on its roads in 2050 as are on the planet today; India’s fleet may have multiplied 50-fold. Forecasts of this kind led Carlos Ghosn, boss of the Renault-Nissan alliance, to declare 18 months ago that if the industry did not get on with producing cars with very low or zero emissions, the world would “explode”. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Pension Funds in Asia Passed Europe's in '08
Europe's biggest pension funds weathered the financial crisis better than their North American counterparts last year, according to new research. But Asia's pensions savings actually grew during 2008 and total funds under management by Asian-Pacific pension funds surpassed Europe's for the first time. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Behavioral Theory
Can Mayor Bloomberg pay poor people to do the "right" thing? Read the article in The American Prospect about the progress of New York City’s ambitious anti-poverty initiative here.
dinsdag 8 september 2009
Keynes at Home, Smith Abroad
Domestic stimulus spills over to protectionism. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Towards the integrated measurement and management of market and credit risk: The dangers of compounding versus diversification
The financial crisis has exposed serious weaknesses in risk measurement and management practices. This column argues for both market practitioners and their supervisors to make concerted efforts to achieve a more integrated measurement and management of different forms of risk.
Read the full article here.
Bonus : "Aux Etats-Unis, toute ingérence sera perçue comme totalitaire"
Les membres du G20 vont se réunir et présenter leurs résolutions sur les bonus du secteur bancaire. Européens et Américains divergent sur la réglementation de ces derniers. Un consensus est-il envisageable ?
Lisez l'article complet ici.
maandag 7 september 2009
La hausse du forfait hospitalier, une "piste parmi d'autres" étudiées par l'Etat
Le gouvernement envisage d'augmenter le forfait hospitalier de 25 % et de baisser le remboursement de certains médicaments, affirme le Journal du Dimanche daté du dimanche 6 septembre. Ces mesures devraient être inscrites dans le projet de budget 2010 de la sécurité sociale, "pour freiner le dérapage de l'assurance-maladie", écrit le quotidien.
Lisez l'article complet ici.
Eurozone stimulus: A myth, some facts, and impact estimates
Eurozone governments have engaged in substantial fiscal stimulus. This column argues against further fiscal measures, claiming that forward-looking firms and households will cut their expenditure in response to governmental expansions. It warns that further fiscal efforts risk eroding financial and monetary policies that are combating the crisis.
Read the complete article here.
vrijdag 4 september 2009
Firefighters Become Medics to the Poor
"Among the hidden costs of the health care crisis is the burden that fire departments across the country are facing as firefighters, much like emergency room doctors, are increasingly serving as primary care providers." Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
The improbable 2°C global warming target
Mitigating global warning is a pressing and daunting task for the world’s major economies. This column says that the 2°C target set by G8 leaders is both politically and technologically unrealistic. It argues they must adopt more realistic targets and long-term commitments to adaptation plans.
Read the full article here.
Systemic risk and deposit insurance premiums
Financial institutions enjoy a large number of government guarantees. This column says that we ought to be charging banks for such subsidies and doing so in a way that promotes financial stability. It uses the example of demand deposit insurance in the US to explore the poor design of funding for such guarantees.
Read the full article here.
The crisis and citizens’ trust in central banks
Most observers agree that central banks can claim partial credit for the stabilisation that have been achieved and the prospect of a recovery. This column warns that the general public seems to hold a completely different opinion; trust in central banks has declined and the reaction of central banks to the crisis is generally judged as unsatisfactory. Central bankers all over the world should redouble their efforts to regain the trust of the people towards their institution.
Read the full article here.
Moeten de banken de crisis betalen?
Moeten de banken de crisis betalen? Dat lijkt IVAN VAN DE CLOOT niet onrechtvaardig. Als we een manier vinden om banken correct te laten betalen voor het risico dat ze afwentelen op de maatschappij, zou ons financiële systeem daar zelfs wel bij varen.
Lees het volledige artikel hier.
donderdag 3 september 2009
Sustaining a Global Recovery
"How much has potential output decreased? It is very hard to tell: we do not see potential output, only actual output. The historical evidence is worrisome, however. The IMF’s forthcoming World Economic Outlook presents evidence from 88 banking crises over the past four decades in a wide range of countries. While there is large variation across countries, the conclusion is that, on average, output does not go back to its old trend path, but remains permanently below it.
The possible good news is that the trend itself appears to be unaffected: on average, crises permanently decrease the level of output, but not its growth rate. So, if past is prologue, the world economy likely will return to its past growth rate. But, especially in advanced countries, the period of above-average growth, characteristic of normal recoveries, may be short-lived or nonexistent."
Read Olivier Blanchard's article here.
A slow-burning fuse
Age is creeping up on the world, and any moment now it will begin to show. The consequences will be scary, says Barbara Beck. Read the complete special report in The Economist here.
Daar is Tobin weer
DE STANDAARD ANALYSE — 'De banken hebben de crisis veroorzaakt, en zij moeten dus ook maar opdraaien voor de gevolgen ervan.' Dat ABVV-voorzitter Rudy De Leeuw gisteren in De Morgen, pleitte voor de invoering van een crisisbelasting op de banken, zal niemand echt verbazen. Maar dat minister van Financiën en MR-voorzitter Didier Reynders zich in Le Soir duidelijk voorstander toonde van de invoering van een soort algemene taks op financiële transacties, klonk al heel wat verrassender.
Lees het volledige artikel hier.
Effets économiques d'une régularisation des sans-papiers en Belgique
Consultez le rapport de l'IRES à ce sujet ici.
woensdag 2 september 2009
A Tale of Two Depressions
This is an update of the authors' 4 June and 6 April 2009 columns comparing today's global crisis to the Great Depression. World industrial production, trade, and stock markets are now showing signs of recovery. Still – today's crisis remains dramatic by the standards of the Great Depression.
Read the full article here.
Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past
Both financial turmoil and falling demand have hit exporters hard. This column confirms the importance of financing problems by showing that sectors relatively more dependent on external finance suffer larger export drops during banking crises.
Read the full article here.
Duaalflatie iemand ?
Eén van de onuitputtelijke discussies vandaag tussen economen is die over de dreiging van inflatie versus deflatie. ...
Lees het volledige artikel hier.
De begroting: naar een nieuwe energiebelasting ? - update
Update: Deze ochtend lees ik dat de regering nu al rekening houdt met een tekort van 25 miljard euro. Alhoewel dat allerminst een verrassing zou mogen zijn (op deze blog hadden we het al verschillende keren over de horrorshow die de begroting is). We zijn de jaren '70 aan het herhalen.
Lees G. Noëls opiniestuk hier.
Contrer la récidive bancaire, par Martin Wolf
Il en faudrait peu pour que les banques aient à nouveau les mains libres ; c'est en tout cas l'impression que l'on a.
Lisez l'article complet ici.
Lisez l'article complet ici.
dinsdag 1 september 2009
How Does the Quality of U.S. Health Care Compare Internationally?
This paper shows that the U.S. health care system does relatively well in some areas, including cancer care, and less well in others, such as coordinated management of chronic conditions. Rather than compromise currently excellent care, health reform can only help, the authors conclude.
Read this paper here.
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