Perspectives économiques 2010

Les indicateurs économiques indiquant une reprise économique plus vive que prévu il y a quelques mois, notre prévision de croissance de l’économie belge en 2010 a été révisée en hausse, à 1,5 %, contre 0,7 % dans notre projection d’octobre. Le
raffermissement attendu de l’activité économique ne sera cependant pas suffisamment fort à court terme pour empêcher que la situation du marché du travail continue à se détériorer en 2010.

Lisez ce nouveau numéro de Regards économiques (IRES-UCL) ici.

A systemic risk warning system

Economists largely neglected systemic risk in the financial sector. This column discusses how governments should gather data about systemic risk and assess its implications. It says the new European Systemic Risk Board is far from the ideal – it is too big, too homogeneous, and lacks independence.

Read the full article from A. Sibert on Vox.eu here.

Who should decide on emergency liquidity assistance?

What government agency should decide lender-of-last-resort policy? This column discusses the optimal allocation of decision-making authority, suggesting that the central bank decide emergency loans and the deposit insurance agency guarantee them. But providing greater liquidity assistance will also require punishment to deter moral hazard problems.

Read the full article from J. Ponce on Vox.eu here.

China: the biggest bubble in economic history – update

When we first wrote about triple zero financing, credit bubbles in the US, refinancing frenzy etc. most people thought we were just pessimistic by nature. Unfortunately, these excesses were not halted, but continued until they provoked a credit crisis in 2008. The consequences were disastrous, and pushed the global financial to the edge of complete meltdown....

Read the full article on Econoshock here.