vrijdag 30 oktober 2009
Falling fertility
Astonishing falls in the fertility rate are bringing with them big benefits. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
A joyless recovery
THE American government reported on Thursday October 29th that gross domestic product rose at an annualised rate of 3.5% in the third quarter compared with the second. This was the first increase since the second quarter of 2008. It backs up other evidence that the recession ended in the third quarter or just before, though the official decision, by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists, is still some way off. Robert Gordon, a member of this group, is confident that the recession, which began in December 2007, ended in June. But at 18 months that would still make it the longest since 1933. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
donderdag 29 oktober 2009
Household saving rate at 16.5% in the euro area and 14.4% in the EU 27
Read this Eurostat release here.
9 of 10 Europeans want urgent action on poverty
Read the Eurobarometer Survey on Poverty and Social Exclusion from the EC here.
Interview with Charles Krauthammer 'Obama Is Average'
In a SPIEGEL interview, Charles Krauthammer, the leading voice of America's conservative intellectuals, discusses Barack Obama's Nobel Peace Prize, the president's failures and the state of the United Nations and the international community. Read the complete interview in Der Spiegel International here.
The price of cleanliness
China is torn between getting greener and getting rich
er. 
Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Financial crises are different! Refining the Reinhart-Rogoff estimates
Is the current turmoil unique? This column examines three decades of financial crises and says that it stands out. But the variation in past experiences suggests that the major economies may regain their pre-crisis levels of output by the second half of 2010.
Read this article from Cecchetti et al. on Vox.eu here.
Can renewable energy save the world?
Can renewable energy save the world from climate change, and do so at a reasonable cost? This column says we can replace some fossil fuel power with renewable power without a major cost increase, but we cannot hope to replace a major fraction of our fossil power with intermittent power sources such as wind and solar energy unless we can develop energy storage technologies.
Read the full article from G. Heal on Vox.eu here.
How to avoid a repeat of the Great Crash
The 80th anniversary of the Great Crash is upon us. This touches a nerve because we seemed to be looking into the same bottomless pit only a year ago. The chain of events, leading from a dramatic collapse in stock prices on Wall Street, beginning in late October 1929, to a Great Depression that engulfed the world economy for years, has suddenly leapt off the pages of the history books with an entirely fresh verisimilitude. Pessimists have asked, what is to stop it all happening again? Optimists have asked, what can we learn to stop it from doing so?
Read the full article in the FT here.
The Global Gender Gap Report 2009
Out of the 115 countries covered in the report since 2006, more than two-thirds have posted gains in overall index scores, indicating that the world in general has made progress towards equality between men and women, although there are countries that continue to lose ground.
Read this World Economic Forum report here.
woensdag 28 oktober 2009
Inburgering voor dummies
Marokko haalt meer inkomsten uit de diaspora dan uit zijn eigen economie.
INTEGRATIE VRAAGT MEER DAN EEN CURSUS NEDERLANDS — Zo lang via huwelijksmigratie de deuren van België wijd openstaan voor nieuwkomers en zo lang landen als Marokko profijt halen uit de slechte inburgering van hun uitwijkelingen, zal België integratieproblemen blijven hebben, voorspelt JEAN-MARIE DEDECKER. Dat los je op met nieuwe wetten, niet met een cursus Nederlands via internet. Lees het opiniestuk hier.
INTEGRATIE VRAAGT MEER DAN EEN CURSUS NEDERLANDS — Zo lang via huwelijksmigratie de deuren van België wijd openstaan voor nieuwkomers en zo lang landen als Marokko profijt halen uit de slechte inburgering van hun uitwijkelingen, zal België integratieproblemen blijven hebben, voorspelt JEAN-MARIE DEDECKER. Dat los je op met nieuwe wetten, niet met een cursus Nederlands via internet. Lees het opiniestuk hier.
Freaked Out Over SuperFreakonomics (and climate change)
Suppose for a minute—which is about 59 seconds too long, but that's for another column—that global warming poses an imminent threat to the survival of our species. Suppose, too, that the best solution involves a helium balloon, several miles of garden hose and a harmless stream of sulfur dioxide being pumped into the upper atmosphere, all at a cost of a single F-22 fighter jet.
Good news, right? Maybe, but not if you're Al Gore or one of his little helpers.
The hose-in-the-sky approach to global warming is the brainchild of Intellectual Ventures, a Bellevue, Wash.-based firm founded by former Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Nathan Myhrvold. The basic idea is to engineer effects similar to those of the 1991 mega-eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, which spewed so much sulfuric ash into the stratosphere that it cooled the earth by about one degree Fahrenheit for a couple of years. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Efficient Market Theory and the Crisis
Neither the rating agencies' mistakes nor the overleveraging by financial firms was the fault of an academic hypothesis. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
dinsdag 27 oktober 2009
maandag 26 oktober 2009
U.S. Considers Reining In ‘Too Big to Fail’ Institutions
Congress and the Obama administration are about to take up one of the most fundamental issues stemming from the near collapse of the financial system last year — how to deal with institutions that are so big that the government has no choice but to rescue them when they get in trouble. Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
Do not ignore the need for financial reform
The philosophy that has helped me both in making money as a hedge fund manager and in spending it as a policy oriented philanthropist is not about money but about the complicated relationship between thinking and reality. The crash of 2008 has convinced me that it provides a valuable insight into the workings of the financial markets. ....
Read this article in the FT here.
Adjustments to the accountability and transparency of the European Central Bank
Governments are restructuring their financial supervision systems. This column warns that the proposed new structure for European financial supervision is poorly coordinated and will not help in a systemic crisis. It discusses how the ECB might coordinate macro-prudential supervision in the euro area.
Read the full article on Vox.eu here.
Een andere soort van staatshervorming
Luckas Vande Talen wil komaf maken met een rist overbodige instellingen. Lees het volledige opiniestuk in De Standaard hier.
vrijdag 23 oktober 2009
donderdag 22 oktober 2009
Lessons of the lat
The European Union should ease the way for small, troubled currencies to join the euro. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Betting on bytes
Optimism that tech firms will help kick-start economic recovery is overdone. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Exporters (good ones) don’t pass-through
The prices of tradable goods are remarkably insensitive to exchange rate movements. This column provides a firm-level explanation. In response to a depreciation, high-performance firms raise their mark-ups rather than their export volumes, and their choices dominate the aggregate export variables.
Read this article from N. Berman et al. on Vox.eu here.
« Les Etats-Unis n'échapperont pas à un second plan de relance », Kenneth Rogoff
Professeur à Havard et ex-chef économiste du FMI de 2001 à 2003, Kenneth Rogoff, qui est également l'auteur du livre « Huit Siècles de folie financière » (Princeton University Press), analyse les conséquences du déclin du dollar et les limites du plan de relance américain.
Lisez l'interview dans LesEchos.fr ici.
woensdag 21 oktober 2009
Les 14 points clés du Rapport « Sortie de crise : vers l’émergence de nouveaux modèles de croissance ? »
Lisez cet utile résumé du Centre d'Analyse Stratégique ici.
THE WORLD IN 2025
The recent development of the world context and the strong European commitments to a regulated globalisation argue in favour of a prospective analysis of the trends which will shape the international environment, the tensions which will structure its development in the coming decades and the transitions that Europe could contribute to promote it. Read the complete report (25p.) from the European Commission here.
Why the euro is not the next global currency
The explosion of debate on the demise of the dollar has been instructive, though vastly premature. What is striking, however, is the absence of the euro from talk of alternatives as the global currency. Currency baskets, SDRs, even internationalisation of the renminbi, have been mooted, but not the obvious alternative. ....
Read the full article in the FT here.
Rising Debt a Threat to Japanese Economy
How much debt can an industrialized country carry before the nation’s economy and its currency bow, then break?
The question looms large in the United States, as a surging budget deficit pushes government debt to nearly 98 percent of the gross domestic product. But it looms even larger in Japan.
[...]
Just paying the interest on its debt consumed a fifth of Japan’s budget for 2008, compared with debt payments that compose about a tenth of the United States budget.
Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
The question looms large in the United States, as a surging budget deficit pushes government debt to nearly 98 percent of the gross domestic product. But it looms even larger in Japan.
[...]
Just paying the interest on its debt consumed a fifth of Japan’s budget for 2008, compared with debt payments that compose about a tenth of the United States budget.
Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.
dinsdag 20 oktober 2009
Energies : vers une période de transition cahotique, par Michael T. Klare
La période de transition entre énergies fossiles et renouvelables s’annonce agitée, avertit Michael T. Klare. Faute d’une conversion massive et rapide aux énergies nouvelles - qui paraît aujourd’hui peu vraisemblable - nos sociétés en seront réduites à compter de plus en plus sur des gisements « extrêmes », coûteux à exploiter, difficiles d’accès, certains situés dans des zones dangereuses, d’autres extrêmement polluants, dévastateurs pour l’environnement, et qui feront l’objet pour la plupart d’une compétition internationale acharnée, source de tensions géopolitiques.
Lisez l'article complet sur le site Contre Info.info ici.
Five Technologies That Could Change Everything
As the world tries to wean itself from dependence on fossil fuels, technological breakthroughs in these five areas could be a huge help. Read the complete WSJ energy report here.
Immigrant Scientists Create Jobs and Win Nobels
Of the nine people who shared this year's Nobel Prizes in chemistry, physics and medicine, eight are American citizens, a testament to this country's support for pioneering research. But those numbers disguise a more important story. Four of the American winners were born outside of the United States and only came here as graduate or post-doctoral students or as scientists. They came because our system of higher education and advanced research has been a magnet for creative talent. Read the complete opinion piece in the WSJ here.
Gratis begrotingstip? Bel Olaf
Nu de Belgische regering de strijd tegen fiscale en andere fraude weer eens uit de kast haalt, om gaten in de begroting dicht te rijden, geef ik de ministers van Justitie en Financiën graag een gratis tip: bel eens met Olaf. Hij is weliswaar pas tien, maar gespecialiseerd in fraudebestrijding. Met succes. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Bart Staes in De Tijd hier.
The Coming Energy Revolution
Electric cars, intelligent washing machines, mini power plants in your basement: Germany is on the verge of an energy revolution. SPIEGEL ONLINE looks at the latest developments in the smart grid and how it will change the relationship between consumers and energy suppliers.
Read the full article on Spiegel International (14/10/2009) here.
Démographie, l'exception française
Quel est le secret du "modèle français" ? Depuis quelques années, les démographes, les sociologues et les responsables politiques étrangers se penchent avec perplexité sur le cas de la France : à l'heure où l'Europe est touchée par un recul des naissances, ce pays est devenu le champion d'Europe de la fécondité.
Lisez l'article complet dans Le Monde ici.
maandag 19 oktober 2009
EU labour market continues to weaken
Although the outlook for the coming months remains unfavourable, labour markets are showing tentative signs of stablising in some EU countries as confidence among businesses and consumers continues to recover. The EU unemployment rate edged up to 9.1 % in August but the rate remained stable in five countries (Finland, Germany, Italy, Poland and Slovenia) and fell in another four (Austria, Denmark, Malta and Portugal). This month's report includes a special focus on the textile sector, which remains labour intensive and, like most manufacturing sectors, has been hit hard by the economic crisis.
Read this EC report here.
Les chiffres de la pauvreté
- 15% des Belges, soit environ 1 sur 7, vivent sous le seuil de pauvreté ;
- En matière de risque de pauvreté, on peut constater de grandes disparités sociales. Pour certaines d’entre elles, la Belgique présente un profil différent de ses principaux pays voisins. C’est notamment le cas pour les risques de pauvreté liés à l’âge ;
- Les chiffres provisoires de 2008 montrent une tendance à la hausse de la pauvreté subjective.
Consultez le communiqué de presse du SPF Economie du 17/10/2009 ici.
Subprime mortgages: Myths and reality
The global crisis is said to have originated in the US subprime mortgage market. This column argues that many of the most popular explanations that have emerged for the subprime crisis are, to a large extent, myths.
Read the full article from K. Cherny et al. on Vox.eu here.
The new global balance – Part II: Higher rates rather than weaker dollar in 2010
Many expect the dollar to continue to depreciate over the foreseeable future. This column suggests that it may strengthen in 2010 if the Federal Reserve exits quantitative easing sooner than its counterparts and the US economy enjoys a strong rebound.
Read the full article from C. Broda et al. on Vox.eu here.
vrijdag 16 oktober 2009
L'euro fort complique la sortie de crise de la zone euro
A peine sortie de la récession, l'économie européenne va devoir faire face à une hausse de l'euro, au moins jusqu'à la fin de l'année. Les ministres des Finances de la zone euro se pencheront lundi sur la question sans grand espoir de trouver une solution rapide.
Lisez l'article complet dans Les Echos.fr ici.
The rise of obesity in Europe: An economic perspective
Should the government intervene to reduce obesity on the basis of equity or efficiency? This column gives reasons to be sceptical common arguments for such interventions. Unless health insurance provision creates significant moral hazard problems that encourage obesity, there is little reason to attack obesity on the basis of health insurance externalities. Read the complete VOX article here.
On the measurability of offshorability
Fear of offshoring may force its way back onto policy agendas soon. This column uses a survey of individual workers to measure the offshorability of particular jobs and says that about 25% of US jobs are offshorable. Surprisingly, routine tasks are not more offshorable but those held by more educated workers are. Read the complete VOX article here.
Questioning the invisible hand
Can liberalised energy markets cut carbon emissions? Britain is starting to doubt it. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
donderdag 15 oktober 2009
Sweden Turning Stray Rabbits Into Biofuel
Stray rabbits are getting a raw deal in Sweden. Thousands of them living in the center of Stockholm are being culled, deep frozen and converted into biofuel for heating homes. Wildlife campaigners have criticized the practice. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
woensdag 14 oktober 2009
Energie : la chasse au carbone est lancée
Dans un secteur de l'énergie historiquement fondé sur le carbone, celui que l'on trouve dans le charbon, le pétrole ou le gaz, la remise en question est profonde.
Lisez l'article complet dans LesEchos.fr (14/10/09) ici.
dinsdag 13 oktober 2009
Nobel Looks Outside Markets
Economics Prize Goes to Americans Who Studied Shared Resources, Corporate Decisions. Read the complete article here.
maandag 12 oktober 2009
vrijdag 9 oktober 2009
Bull in a china shop
China does not have dangerous bubbles in shares and housing—yet. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
'We Need a Pan-European Financial Oversight Authority'
Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Germany's Answer to Jobless Youth
Longstanding government programs that encourage companies to train young people are curbing Germany's pain, even during a global economic crisis. Read the complete article in De Spiegel International here.
Les prélèvements obligatoires des entreprises dans une économie globalisée (+ commentaires sur effet de la TVA réduite dans la restauration en France)
Consultez ce rapport du Conseil des prélèvements obligatoires ici.
Kerktoren staat in de weg
Aan de grootte ligt het niet. University College London heeft met zijn 22.000 studenten de schaalgrootte van een gemiddelde Vlaamse universiteit. Lees het volledige opiniestuk in De Standaard hier.
donderdag 8 oktober 2009
La Chine s'affirme comme grande puissance mondiale, par Bruno Philip
L'impressionnante parade militaire organisée à Pékin, jeudi 1er octobre, à l'occasion du 60e anniversaire de la fondation de la République populaire vient de boucler un cycle d'occasions qui ont montré à quel point les dirigeants de la troisième économie mondiale revendiquent désormais sans complexe le statut de grande puissance pour leur pays. "Aujourd'hui, la Chine socialiste se tient solidement debout à l'est, face à l'avenir", a proclamé dans son discours du 1er octobre le président Hu Jintao, vêtu d'un costume similaire à celui que Mao portait soixante ans plus tôt.
Lisez l'article complet ici.
Waarom hebben economische modellen de crisis niet voorspeld?
De wereldwijde recessie heeft grote twijfels doen ontstaan over de betrouwbaarheid van de moderne macro-economische modellen. Critici zeggen dat de meeste modellen gebaseerd zijn op onrealistische werkhypothesen en daarom de crisis niet hebben voorspeld. Ze grijpen soms terug naar modellen van 30 jaar geleden. Andere economen daarentegen vinden de kritiek fel overdreven en beklemtonen dat de jongste jaren grote vooruitgang is geboekt. Lees het volledige artikel in De Tijd hier.
woensdag 7 oktober 2009
Capital market theory after the efficient market hypothesis
Have capital market booms and crashes discredited the efficient market hypothesis? This column says yes and suggests a new model that explains asset pricing in terms of a battle between fair value and momentum driven by principal-agent issues. Investment agents’ rational profit seeking gives rise to mispricing and volatility.
Read the full article here.
The rise of obesity in Europe: An economic perspective
Should the government intervene to reduce obesity on the basis of equity or efficiency? This column gives reasons to be sceptical common arguments for such interventions. Unless health insurance provision creates significant moral hazard problems that encourage obesity, there is little reason to attack obesity on the basis of health insurance externalities.
Read the full article here.
dinsdag 6 oktober 2009
maandag 5 oktober 2009
Economische wetenschap in nood
Op 12 oktober wordt de veertigste Nobelprijs Economie uitgereikt, maar de vraag is of iemand daar dit jaar op zit te wachten. De crisis degradeerde een halve eeuw economische theorieën tot luchtkastelen, en deed topeconomen vechtend over de grond rollen. Waar liep het fout? Wat zijn de gevolgen? En kan dat nog rechtgetrokken worden? Een reeks van zes afleveringen over de staat van de economische wetenschap, in de aanloop naar de uitreiking van haar meest prestigieuze prijs. Lees het volledige stuk in De Tijd hier.
vrijdag 2 oktober 2009
Mission Not Accomplished
Stocks are up. Ben Bernanke says that the recession is over. And I sense a growing willingness among movers and shakers to declare “Mission Accomplished” when it comes to fighting the slump. It’s time, I keep hearing, to shift our focus from economic stimulus to the budget deficit. Read the rest of Krugman's column in the NYTimes here.
donderdag 1 oktober 2009
Le traité de Lisbonne, étape ultime de l’intégration européenne ? Le jugement du 30 juin 2009 de la Cour constitutionnelle allemande
Alors que les Irlandais s'apprêtent à décider du sort du traité de Lisbonne lors d'un nouveau référendum organisé le 2 octobre prochain, l'Allemagne vient à peine d'achever sa procédure de ratification. Dans son verdict du 30 juin 2009, la Cour constitutionnelle de Karlsruhe a estimé que le traité de Lisbonne était certes compatible avec les principes directeurs de la Loi fondamentale allemande, mais que la "loi d'accompagnement" devait être modifiée afin de renforcer les droits du Bundestag et du Bundesrat en matière européenne.
Cette Note du Cerfa, après avoir succinctement présenté la décision du tribunal, s’interrogera sur la tentative du tribunal constitutionnel de limiter la participation de l’Allemagne à la future intégration européenne, avant d’étudier les conséquences de ce jugement sur la politique européenne de l’Allemagne. Lisez l'article complet ici.
Cette Note du Cerfa, après avoir succinctement présenté la décision du tribunal, s’interrogera sur la tentative du tribunal constitutionnel de limiter la participation de l’Allemagne à la future intégration européenne, avant d’étudier les conséquences de ce jugement sur la politique européenne de l’Allemagne. Lisez l'article complet ici.
Impact de la crise financière sur le PIB potentiel de la Belgique
Les concepts de croissance potentielle et d’output gap constituent des outils importants pour évaluer la position cyclique d’une économie et sa capacité productive. Ils sont devenus par ailleurs des ingrédients essentiels du processus de surveillance budgétaire européen. Toutefois, la crise que traverse actuellement l’économie mondiale est sans précédent et l’incertitude concernant l’ampleur et la durée des effets de la crise sur le potentiel des économies est par conséquent énorme. Le présent Working Paper a pour objectif de comparer les révisions opérées récemment par le Bureau fédéral du Plan et les institutions internationales dans l’évaluation du potentiel de croissance de l’économie belge. Ces comparaisons visent à mettre en lumière le degré d’incertitude qui entoure ces révisions et également à mieux comprendre les mécanismes par lesquels la crise affecte le PIB potentiel.
Lisez ce rapport du Bureau fédéral du Plan ici.
How big are fiscal multipliers? New evidence from new data
How much stimulus does spending provide? This column says that fiscal multipliers are much weaker in countries that have high debt, lower income, flexible exchange rates, and greater international openness. Policymakers should consider these characteristics when evaluating the benefits of any fiscal stimulus package.
Read the full article here.
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