maandag 16 november 2009
The modest superpower
How the financial crisis could leave Europe even stronger than America. Read the complete article in Newsweek here.
«On ne tire aucune leçon de la crise de 2007»
Selon Geert Noels, Chief Economist de la société de conseil Econopolis, les banques centrales répètent les mêmes erreurs qu'en 2002 et hypothèquent sérieusement l'avenir.
Lisez l'article complet dans L'Echo ici.
vrijdag 13 november 2009
Improving Resolution Options for Systemically Relevant Financial Institutions
There are critical holes in the existing regulatory framework for handling large complex financial institutions that become impaired. This uncertainty makes it difficult for regulators to know the best way to restructure a financial institution or, indeed, whether restructuring is even feasible without enormous disruption. This Working Paper, the seventh in the Squam Lake Working Group series distributed by the Center for Geoeconomic Studies, endorses legislation that would give authorities the necessary powers to effect an orderly resolution of large complex financial institutions. As part of this authority, every such institution should be required to create its own rapid resolution plans, which would be subject to periodic regulatory scrutiny. These “living wills” would help authorities address the difficulties that might arise in a resolution. Read the complete article here.
Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is currently on a course toward creating another financial crisis. History shows that without changing course, countries with high actual and expected money growth, unsustainable budget deficits, and a currency expected to depreciate wind up in a crisis. The United States should commit to reducing future inflation and lowering future budget deficits to avoid a crisis and ultimately increase economic well-being. Read the complete AEI article here.
Economic theory and the financial crisis - An interview with Eric Mashkin
Read the complete interview in The Browser here.
Is Posner Right? An Empirical Test of the Posner Argument for Transferring Health Spending from Old Women to Old Men
Posner (1995) proposes the redistribution of health spending from old women to old men to
equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that women’s utility is
higher if they are married. Thus, extending the lifespan of men would benefit women. Using
life satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we conduct an
empirical test of this assumption. We apply a two-step estimation strategy: first, we use a
propensity score matching approach to generate a control group of non-widowed women.
The average level of life satisfaction in the control group serves as a reference to measure
the degree of adaptation to widowhood. In the second step, the life satisfaction trajectories of
both groups are estimated using penalized spline regressions. The results suggest
bereavement has no enduring effect on life satisfaction, and that falsifies Posner’s
assumption. Read the complete publication here.
equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that women’s utility is
higher if they are married. Thus, extending the lifespan of men would benefit women. Using
life satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we conduct an
empirical test of this assumption. We apply a two-step estimation strategy: first, we use a
propensity score matching approach to generate a control group of non-widowed women.
The average level of life satisfaction in the control group serves as a reference to measure
the degree of adaptation to widowhood. In the second step, the life satisfaction trajectories of
both groups are estimated using penalized spline regressions. The results suggest
bereavement has no enduring effect on life satisfaction, and that falsifies Posner’s
assumption. Read the complete publication here.
Disillusioned with Europe, Turkey Looks East
As European opposition to EU membership for Turkey grows, Ankara is looking to forge closer ties to its neighbors. Turkey wants to once again become a leading power in the Middle East -- but its relationship with Israel may suffer as a result. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Geert Wilders' One-Man Crusade against Islam
Geert Wilders wants to ban the Koran, impose a tax on headscarves and calculate the cost of immigration. The Dutch right-wing populist also plans to run for prime minister in 2011 -- and his party is currently leading in the polls. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International Edition here.
Single market bargaining
Why a deal on tax harmonisation might not boost support for the single market. Read the Charlemagne column in The Economist here.
Health-care reform: Passing the baton
One step forward for health reform. But even if they reach the finishing line, the Democrats face trouble in next year’s mid-terms. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Pour une école de la confiance
L'avant-projet de décret est une étape positive dans la reconstruction d’une école de la confiance. Eléments de réflexion sur une plateforme durable pour la réussite scolaire. Lisez la carte blanche dans La Libre Belgique ici.
donderdag 12 november 2009
In Istanbul - Islam en mensenrechten
De vergaderzaal van hotel Akgün baadt in een onbestemde tristesse. Dikke gordijnen houden het priemende zonlicht buiten, want dat zou weergaloze PowerPoint-presentaties kunnen verstoren. Over de tafels hangen lange witte kleden, met veel plooien en weelderige fronsen. Het lijkt wel een huwelijksfeest, een heel treurig weliswaar, waarbij de bruid verontschuldigd is en de bruidegom vergeet aanwezig te zijn. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Rik Torfs in de Standaard hier.
dinsdag 10 november 2009
Paranoia Strikes Deep
Last Thursday there was a rally outside the U.S. Capitol to protest pending health care legislation, featuring the kinds of things we’ve grown accustomed to, including large signs showing piles of bodies at Dachau with the caption “National Socialist Healthcare.” It was grotesque — and it was also ominous. For what we may be seeing is America starting to be Californiafied. Read Krugman's column in the NYTimes here.
Fighting Obesity May Take a Village
Exercise more. Avoid junk food. Such common-sense health advice has proved no match against the temptations of modern life, which have sent obesity rates around the world soaring. Now, government officials in a number of countries are pursing an aggressive new strategy: enlisting entire communities to insulate people from these temptations and make healthier choices easier. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Een meesterlijk stukje beeldvorming
SCHIET NIET OP DE PIANIST, MEVROUW HEMMERECHTS — Op haar weblog op de nieuwswebsite van de VRT trok schrijfster Kristien Hemmerechts van leer tegen een opiniestuk van LUCKAS VANDER TAELEN dat onlangs in deze krant verscheen. Dat vindt die laatste niet kunnen. Vander Taelen wilde de multiculturele problematiek in zijn gemeente aanklagen, en nu wordt hij plots zelf als dader afgeschilderd. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Lucas Vander Taelen hier.
vrijdag 6 november 2009
Kosten zorgleerlingen blijven stijgen, terwijl kennis over effecten beleid ontbreekt
De uitgaven voor het primair onderwijs in Nederland lopen de laatste jaren sterk op door leerlingen die extra zorgbegeleiding nodig hebben. Het aantal zogenaamde zorgleerlingen groeide van 80 duizend in 1997 naar ruim 100 duizend in 2007. Centraal in dit rapport staat de vraag wat de oorzaak is voor deze toename. Daarbij kijkt het rapport ook naar de mogelijke invloed van beleidsveranderingen hierop. De stijging van de uitgaven aan zorgleerlingen komt hoofdzakelijk door een verschuiving naar de duurdere vormen van speciaal onderwijs samen met een stijging van het aantal rugzakleerlingen. De achterliggende oorzaak is vermoedelijk voor een belangrijk deel nieuw beleid dat nieuwe gevallen aantrekt zonder dat het budget grenzen stelt aan de deelname. Tot slot, uit de inventarisatie blijkt dat weinig tot niets bekend is over de effectiviteit van het overheidsbeleid voor zorgleerlingen in termen van toekomstkansen of, breder, de maatschappelijke baten.
Lees het volledige rapport van Centraal Planbureau Nederland hier.
How to share the burden of combating climate change
Governments are bitterly divided about how advanced and developing economies should share the burdens of aggressive climate change mitigation. This column suggests a “do no harm” principle by which developing countries would be enabled to reduce their cost of mitigation to zero until they have eliminated abject poverty.
Read the full article from V.R. Joshi on Vox.eu here.
donderdag 5 november 2009
Calomiris on historical crisis lessons
Policymakers and macroeconomists often remind us that banking crises are nothing new. This column, based on recent papers by Columbia professor Charles Calomiris, looks at the long-term record of banking crises and draws lessons for today.
Read the article from R. Baldwin on Vox.eu here.
woensdag 4 november 2009
dinsdag 3 november 2009
Are health problem systemic? Politics of access and choice under Beveridge and Bismark systems
Read this working paper from IRDES here.
France: L'emploi des seniors désormais imposé par la loi
Pour la première fois, la loi de financement de la sécurité sociale inclut des sanctions financières à l'égard des entreprises qui ne se mobiliseraient pas en faveur de l'emploi des plus de 50 ans. Les intéressées ont peu de temps pour réagir et transformer ce qui semble être une contrainte en réelle opportunité.
Lisez l'article complet sur Novethic ici.
Crisis Compels Economists To Reach for New Paradigm
The pain of the financial crisis has economists striving to understand precisely why it happened and how to prevent a repeat. For that task, John Geanakoplos of Yale University takes inspiration from Shakespeare's "Merchant of Venice."
The play's focus is collateral, with the money lender Shylock demanding a particularly onerous form of recompense if his loan wasn't repaid: a pound of flesh. Mr. Geanakoplos, too, finds danger lurking in the assets that back loans. For him, the risk is that investors who can borrow too freely against those assets drive their prices far too high, setting up a bust that reverberates through the economy. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Le grand retour de la bulle spéculative
En voulant sauver l'économie mondiale, a-t-on fait naître une nouvelle bulle qui sera à l'origine de la prochaine crise ?
Lisez l'article complet dans Le Monde ici.
Government guarantees on bank funding: Should we extend them into 2010 despite the improved bank profitability and the schemes’ distortionary effects?
In December 2009, government guarantees on the issuance of bank bonds will close to new issuance in many EU countries. This column argues that the guarantees have been effective and should be extended into 2010, despite improved market conditions and bank profitability. In doing so, governments should correct the schemes for some distortionary effects and develop a careful exit strategy.
Read the full article from A. Levy and F. Panetta on Vox.eu here.
maandag 2 november 2009
Recent economische ontwikkelingen in Vlaanderen (Oktober 09)
Lees het volledige rapport van de Studiedienst van de Vlaamse Regering hier.
Will the current economic crisis lead to more retirements?
Since the crisis began, the economy has shed millions of jobs. This column explains how stock, housing, and labour market fluctuations affect retirement decisions. While wealthier workers will delay retirement, a larger number of workers will be forced into retirement because of their inability to find new jobs. This increased involuntary retirement will likely exceed any work-seeking effect of diminished stock market wealth by 50%.
Read this article from C.C. Coile and P.B.Levine on Vox.eu here.
Design and effectiveness of fiscal-stimulus programmes
The recent global recession has made the efficacy of fiscal-stimulus packages one of the most prominent policy debates in economics today. This column finds that the multiplier of defence spending falls in a range of 0.6 to 0.8 and argues that non-defence multipliers are unlikely to be larger. It says we should be sceptical when policymakers claim government-spending multipliers in excess of one and suggests tax cuts may be preferable to spending increases.
Read the full article from R. Barro and C. Redlick on Vox.eu here.
vrijdag 30 oktober 2009
Falling fertility
Astonishing falls in the fertility rate are bringing with them big benefits. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
A joyless recovery
THE American government reported on Thursday October 29th that gross domestic product rose at an annualised rate of 3.5% in the third quarter compared with the second. This was the first increase since the second quarter of 2008. It backs up other evidence that the recession ended in the third quarter or just before, though the official decision, by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists, is still some way off. Robert Gordon, a member of this group, is confident that the recession, which began in December 2007, ended in June. But at 18 months that would still make it the longest since 1933. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
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