maandag 23 november 2009
Large changes in fiscal policy: taxes versus spending
Read this paper from A. Alesina and S. Ardagna here.
Commerce : selon l'OMC, la crise n'a pas déclenché de vague protectionniste
La force et la soudaineté de la crise économique auraient pu pousser les pays à renouer avec le protectionnisme. "Cela ne s'est pas produit", constate l'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) dans le quatrième rapport de l'année qu'elle consacre à la surveillance des pratiques commerciales mondiales et qui a été publié le 18 novembre. Certes, il y a eu quelques branle-bas de combat douaniers dans les pays industrialisés comme dans les pays émergents. Mais l'OMC estime qu'aucun de ses membres "n'est retombé dans un protectionnisme à grande échelle et qu' il n'y a pas eu d'exemple significatif de riposte commerciale". Les restrictions aux échanges et les distorsions de concurrence n'ont pas concerné plus de 1 % des échanges mondiaux.
Le Monde, 20/11/2009
Consultez le rapport de l'OMC ici.
vrijdag 20 november 2009
Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out
Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Time for the greening of global trade
To suggest that free trade is destructive is to invite controversy. But the reality is that free trade must be constrained: it encourages the unrestrained consumption of goods and services, thereby playing a negative environmental role globally.
Read this article in the FT here.
November 2009: Monthly Labour Market Monitor
Unemployment continues to rise, job vacancies remain significantly lower than a year ago and companies continue to announce more job reductions than creation.
Moreover, the outlook for the coming months remains unfavourable. However, labour markets are showing tentative signs of stabilising in some Member States, while a relative improvement in confidence among businesses and consumers, including their employment and unemployment expectations, although still pessimistic, adds support to the view that the pace of economic and labour market deterioration is easing. In this month's edition there is a special focus on the health sector as well as an update on the situation in the automotive industry, previously reported on in the February issue.
Moreover, the outlook for the coming months remains unfavourable. However, labour markets are showing tentative signs of stabilising in some Member States, while a relative improvement in confidence among businesses and consumers, including their employment and unemployment expectations, although still pessimistic, adds support to the view that the pace of economic and labour market deterioration is easing. In this month's edition there is a special focus on the health sector as well as an update on the situation in the automotive industry, previously reported on in the February issue.
Read this EC report here.
donderdag 19 november 2009
Evaluating the Labor-Market Effects of Compulsory Military Service
Read the complete IZA paper here.
China's state-owned enterprises: Nationalisation rides again
Do state firms have too much power? A case in Hebei stirs debate. Read the complete piece in The Economist here.
Inventing a Better Patent System
Congress should add five amendments to existing statutes that would improve patent processing, reduce lawsuits and speed up the arrival of innovations on the market. Read the complete column in The NYTimes here.
Euro Solidarity With Eastern Europe
It's a shame that assistance efforts for the new member states are not EU-led but spearheaded by the IMF. Read Verhofstadt's opinion article in the WSJ here.
No Time to Read This? Read This
Many readers seem to think they do, based on the email response to my recent column on the importance of taking time off. Dozens asked me to recommend a time-management method that would help them get on top of their work and home duties. In response, I asked a half-dozen executive coaches to help me pick the most widely used time-management systems—not just software tools or high-tech to-do lists, but behavioral-change techniques that help people get organized, clarify thinking and increase output. Then, I tried out for a week each of the three methods they mentioned most often—including one that involved a ticking plastic tomato. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Evaluating the potential of solar technologies
Solar power is poised to grow into a reliable alternative energy source, promising lower carbon emissions and decreased dependence on fossil fuels. What technologies are currently jostling for leadership in the market?
Read this McKinsey article here.
The lingering effects of financial crises
Will the economic recovery be U-, V-, W-, or L-shaped? This column warns that recoveries from recessions caused by financial crises are slower than others, due to stressed credit conditions that persist even after output begins to recover. It thus recommends policies aimed at recapitalising financial institutions, resolving distressed financial assets, ensuring adequate provision of liquidity, and expediting bankruptcy proceedings.
Read the full article from P. Kannan on Vox.eu here.
The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary stimulus in depressions
There is one important source of information on the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal stimulus in an environment of near-zero interest rates, dysfunctional banking systems and heightened risk aversion that has not been fully exploited: the 1930s. This column gathers data on growth, budgets and central bank policy rates for 27 countries covering the period 1925-39 and shows that where fiscal policy was tried, it was effective.
Read the full article from B. Eichengreen et al on Vox.eu here.
Sudden financial arrest
How should governments respond to sudden failure of the financial system? This column says that it is neither credible nor desirable to refuse to assist the private sector in financial crises. It makes the case for massive provision of credible public insurance and guarantees to financial transactions and balance sheets – a financial defibrillator to respond to sudden financial arrest.
Read this full article from R. Caballero on Vox.eu here.
dinsdag 17 november 2009
De Islam is een deel van Vlaanderen
Europajournalist en publicist Paul Goossens schrijft Yves Desmet een antwoord op zijn essay over het islamdebat in ons land. "Als de islamcritici vaak makelaars in angst zijn, dan zijn er ook producenten van slachtofferschap die met mooie maatschappijanalyses, waarin zelfs een grond van waarheid zit, de illusie creëren dat je niet langer verantwoordelijk zou zijn voor je eigen daden", schreef Yves Desmet zaterdag in een opmerkelijk essay. Daarin legt hij onder meer uit waarom hij Paul Goossens tot die "producenten van slachtofferschap" rekent. Goossens heeft een repliek klaar. Lees het volledige opiniestuk in De Morgen hier.
maandag 16 november 2009
Indicatoren, doelstellingen en visies van duurzame ontwikkeling
Lees het vijfde rapport van het Federaal Planbureau hier.
The modest superpower
How the financial crisis could leave Europe even stronger than America. Read the complete article in Newsweek here.
«On ne tire aucune leçon de la crise de 2007»
Selon Geert Noels, Chief Economist de la société de conseil Econopolis, les banques centrales répètent les mêmes erreurs qu'en 2002 et hypothèquent sérieusement l'avenir.
Lisez l'article complet dans L'Echo ici.
vrijdag 13 november 2009
Improving Resolution Options for Systemically Relevant Financial Institutions
There are critical holes in the existing regulatory framework for handling large complex financial institutions that become impaired. This uncertainty makes it difficult for regulators to know the best way to restructure a financial institution or, indeed, whether restructuring is even feasible without enormous disruption. This Working Paper, the seventh in the Squam Lake Working Group series distributed by the Center for Geoeconomic Studies, endorses legislation that would give authorities the necessary powers to effect an orderly resolution of large complex financial institutions. As part of this authority, every such institution should be required to create its own rapid resolution plans, which would be subject to periodic regulatory scrutiny. These “living wills” would help authorities address the difficulties that might arise in a resolution. Read the complete article here.
Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is currently on a course toward creating another financial crisis. History shows that without changing course, countries with high actual and expected money growth, unsustainable budget deficits, and a currency expected to depreciate wind up in a crisis. The United States should commit to reducing future inflation and lowering future budget deficits to avoid a crisis and ultimately increase economic well-being. Read the complete AEI article here.
Economic theory and the financial crisis - An interview with Eric Mashkin
Read the complete interview in The Browser here.
Is Posner Right? An Empirical Test of the Posner Argument for Transferring Health Spending from Old Women to Old Men
Posner (1995) proposes the redistribution of health spending from old women to old men to
equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that women’s utility is
higher if they are married. Thus, extending the lifespan of men would benefit women. Using
life satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we conduct an
empirical test of this assumption. We apply a two-step estimation strategy: first, we use a
propensity score matching approach to generate a control group of non-widowed women.
The average level of life satisfaction in the control group serves as a reference to measure
the degree of adaptation to widowhood. In the second step, the life satisfaction trajectories of
both groups are estimated using penalized spline regressions. The results suggest
bereavement has no enduring effect on life satisfaction, and that falsifies Posner’s
assumption. Read the complete publication here.
equalize life expectancy. His argument is based on the assumption that women’s utility is
higher if they are married. Thus, extending the lifespan of men would benefit women. Using
life satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we conduct an
empirical test of this assumption. We apply a two-step estimation strategy: first, we use a
propensity score matching approach to generate a control group of non-widowed women.
The average level of life satisfaction in the control group serves as a reference to measure
the degree of adaptation to widowhood. In the second step, the life satisfaction trajectories of
both groups are estimated using penalized spline regressions. The results suggest
bereavement has no enduring effect on life satisfaction, and that falsifies Posner’s
assumption. Read the complete publication here.
Disillusioned with Europe, Turkey Looks East
As European opposition to EU membership for Turkey grows, Ankara is looking to forge closer ties to its neighbors. Turkey wants to once again become a leading power in the Middle East -- but its relationship with Israel may suffer as a result. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Geert Wilders' One-Man Crusade against Islam
Geert Wilders wants to ban the Koran, impose a tax on headscarves and calculate the cost of immigration. The Dutch right-wing populist also plans to run for prime minister in 2011 -- and his party is currently leading in the polls. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International Edition here.
Single market bargaining
Why a deal on tax harmonisation might not boost support for the single market. Read the Charlemagne column in The Economist here.
Health-care reform: Passing the baton
One step forward for health reform. But even if they reach the finishing line, the Democrats face trouble in next year’s mid-terms. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Pour une école de la confiance
L'avant-projet de décret est une étape positive dans la reconstruction d’une école de la confiance. Eléments de réflexion sur une plateforme durable pour la réussite scolaire. Lisez la carte blanche dans La Libre Belgique ici.
donderdag 12 november 2009
In Istanbul - Islam en mensenrechten
De vergaderzaal van hotel Akgün baadt in een onbestemde tristesse. Dikke gordijnen houden het priemende zonlicht buiten, want dat zou weergaloze PowerPoint-presentaties kunnen verstoren. Over de tafels hangen lange witte kleden, met veel plooien en weelderige fronsen. Het lijkt wel een huwelijksfeest, een heel treurig weliswaar, waarbij de bruid verontschuldigd is en de bruidegom vergeet aanwezig te zijn. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Rik Torfs in de Standaard hier.
dinsdag 10 november 2009
Paranoia Strikes Deep
Last Thursday there was a rally outside the U.S. Capitol to protest pending health care legislation, featuring the kinds of things we’ve grown accustomed to, including large signs showing piles of bodies at Dachau with the caption “National Socialist Healthcare.” It was grotesque — and it was also ominous. For what we may be seeing is America starting to be Californiafied. Read Krugman's column in the NYTimes here.
Fighting Obesity May Take a Village
Exercise more. Avoid junk food. Such common-sense health advice has proved no match against the temptations of modern life, which have sent obesity rates around the world soaring. Now, government officials in a number of countries are pursing an aggressive new strategy: enlisting entire communities to insulate people from these temptations and make healthier choices easier. Read the complete article in the WSJ here.
Een meesterlijk stukje beeldvorming
SCHIET NIET OP DE PIANIST, MEVROUW HEMMERECHTS — Op haar weblog op de nieuwswebsite van de VRT trok schrijfster Kristien Hemmerechts van leer tegen een opiniestuk van LUCKAS VANDER TAELEN dat onlangs in deze krant verscheen. Dat vindt die laatste niet kunnen. Vander Taelen wilde de multiculturele problematiek in zijn gemeente aanklagen, en nu wordt hij plots zelf als dader afgeschilderd. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Lucas Vander Taelen hier.
vrijdag 6 november 2009
Kosten zorgleerlingen blijven stijgen, terwijl kennis over effecten beleid ontbreekt
De uitgaven voor het primair onderwijs in Nederland lopen de laatste jaren sterk op door leerlingen die extra zorgbegeleiding nodig hebben. Het aantal zogenaamde zorgleerlingen groeide van 80 duizend in 1997 naar ruim 100 duizend in 2007. Centraal in dit rapport staat de vraag wat de oorzaak is voor deze toename. Daarbij kijkt het rapport ook naar de mogelijke invloed van beleidsveranderingen hierop. De stijging van de uitgaven aan zorgleerlingen komt hoofdzakelijk door een verschuiving naar de duurdere vormen van speciaal onderwijs samen met een stijging van het aantal rugzakleerlingen. De achterliggende oorzaak is vermoedelijk voor een belangrijk deel nieuw beleid dat nieuwe gevallen aantrekt zonder dat het budget grenzen stelt aan de deelname. Tot slot, uit de inventarisatie blijkt dat weinig tot niets bekend is over de effectiviteit van het overheidsbeleid voor zorgleerlingen in termen van toekomstkansen of, breder, de maatschappelijke baten.
Lees het volledige rapport van Centraal Planbureau Nederland hier.
How to share the burden of combating climate change
Governments are bitterly divided about how advanced and developing economies should share the burdens of aggressive climate change mitigation. This column suggests a “do no harm” principle by which developing countries would be enabled to reduce their cost of mitigation to zero until they have eliminated abject poverty.
Read the full article from V.R. Joshi on Vox.eu here.
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