dinsdag 20 juli 2010
Double-Dip Days
"So, as the optimists’ delusional hopes for a rapid V-shaped recovery evaporate, the advanced world will be at best in a long U-shaped recovery, which in some cases – the eurozone and Japan – may be long enough to stretch into an L-shaped near-depression. Avoiding double dip recession will be difficult." Read Nouriel Roubini's column for Project Syndicate here.
Tax policies for low-carbon energy
Economists often advocate taxes or cap-and-trade schemes to fight pollution, but US policy primarily subsidises clean energy alternatives. This column of Gilbert E. Metcalf critiques such subsidies on four counts: they lower the cost of energy, pick favourite technologies, are often “inframarginal”, and interact in unexpected ways with other policies. Read the complete piece on VOXEU here.
Double Dip? Seven Reasons Why Not
It seems these days that half the headlines in the financial media fear a double-dip recession, as do half the conversations on Wall Street. There certainly are risks, not least in Europe’s financial difficulties. But still, there are reasons to question such widespread concerns. History, after all, offers only one true double-dip experience, and that grew out of a policy error. More, the actual data on the economy fly in the face of such an outlook. Following are seven reasons to doubt the double-dip outlook. Read the complete article in the Wall Street Journal here.
Nog 11 jaar vooraleer de Amerikaanse arbeidsmarkt de crisis heeft verteerd
Overigens zou in België de werkgelegenheid in 2012 opnieuw het pré-crisisniveau (van 2008) halen van 4.460.847 banen volgens het Federaal Planbureau. Lees het volledige artikel in Trends hier.
Le nouveau modèle de croissance britannique
Dans le premier budget du gouvernement de coalition du Royaume-Uni, le gouvernement britannique a exposé un plan sur cinq ans pour reconstruire l'économie britannique sur les bases de la responsabilité, de la liberté et de l'équité. Ce plan assume le passé et prépare l'avenir ...
Lisez cet article sur LesEchos.fr ici.
maandag 19 juli 2010
Taxer les plus de 50 ans pour financer la dépendance des seniors
Lors de son entretien télévisé du 12 juillet, Nicolas Sarkozy a confirmé son intention, sitôt achevée la réforme des retraites, d'engager le dernier grand chantier de la législature : la prise en charge de la dépendance.
Lisez l'article complet dans Le Monde ici.
Europeans Cast Critical Eye on Homeopathy
Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Median Duration of Unemployment
What differentiates this recession from the past ones in terms of duration of unemployment? Mankiw provides the answer here.
Crisis, What crisis? Patterns of Adaptation in European Labor Markets
The current crisis, while of a global nature, has affected national labor markets to a varying extent. While some countries have experienced a steep increase in unemployment, employment in other developed economies has not fallen in parallel with a significant decline in GDP. Our analysis shows that labor market institutions frequently used to study employment performance can explain the development of unemployment in the situation of crisis in some clusters of countries much better than in others. One major factor to be incorporated in capturing national variations is the role of internal flexibility, in particular working time adjustment. This calls for a broader concept of labor market flexibility which takes into account different channels of adjustment.
Read this IZA report here.
Biocapacité et empreinte écologique des modes de vie : des indicateurs pour la politique de développement durable ?
Ce Working Paper concerne l’empreinte écologique (EE) et la biocapacité (BC), deux indicateurs synthétiques qui portent sur la pression exercée par l’activité humaine sur les ressources naturelles ainsi que sur l’état du capital environnemental. C’est dans le cadre d’un partenariat établi avec le Global Footprint Network (GFN) par Els Van Weert, Secrétaire d’Etat au développement durable (2004‐2007) que le Bureau fédéral du Plan a réalisé cette étude. Ce partenariat participe à une phase de test de la méthode de calcul de l’EE et de la BC et du potentiel de ces deux indicateurs pour soutenir une stratégie de développement durable.
Lisez ce rapport du Bureau fédéral du Plan ici.
Perspectives économiques 2010-2011
Les développements économiques récents confirment la reprise de l'économie mondiale et le redressement de l'économie belge. Malgré les turbulences financières des derniers mois, l'évolution attendue de la situation économique sur la période de projection reste favorable. Les risques sont néanmoins élevés. En 2010, le PIB belge devrait croître de 1,3 %. Sa croissance devrait se relever à nouveau en 2011, pour atteindre 2,0 %.
Lisez cette publication de Regards économiques (UCL) ici.
Lisez cette publication de Regards économiques (UCL) ici.
vrijdag 16 juli 2010
Ongelijkheid wordt erger
Veertien procent van de bevolking stelt geregeld gezondheidszorg uit omdat die te duur is.
Europe’s stress test is no short-cut to stability
Last year’s stress test in the US applied to institutions that were the main cause of the financial instabilities, and the government had budgetary room to support the sector. Europe’s situation is different. The concern about banks is a derived concern, reflecting worries about sovereign debt in some countries and the overall economic situation; and there are greater limits today on budgetary resources. Read the opinion article in The Financial Times here.
Economics behaving badly
"It’s becoming clear that behavioral economics is being asked to solve problems it wasn’t meant to address. Indeed, it seems in some cases that behavioral economics is being used as a political expedient, allowing policymakers to avoid painful but more effective solutions rooted in traditional economics." Read the complete opinion article byLoewenstein and Ubel in The NYTimes here.
Reforming the NHS: Once more into the ring
A proposed overhaul aims to improve patient choice, promote competition and empower medical professionals. Agai. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Calling time on progress
"Could it be that behind Europe’s petty, possessive talk about rights and entitlements there is something more fundamental going on? The reason that Europeans struggle to accept the need to work more, and get less from the state is that it seems to signal an abrupt reversal of the decades-long advance towards an ever-more civilised society: in short, the end of progress." Read the complete column in The Economist here.
Integration Through Penury? Denmark Debates a Lower Minimum Wage for Immigrants
A Danish politician has suggested paying immigrants half the current minimum wage. The idea has gone down well with center-right parties, but it's opposed by the left -- and the far right. Right-wing populists fear low wages for immigrants could take jobs away from "regular Danes." Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
The Uses and Abuses of Economic Ideology
John Maynard Keynes famously wrote that “the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than commonly understood. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” But I suspect that a greater danger lies elsewhere, with the practical men and women employed in the policymaking functions of central banks, regulatory agencies, governments, and financial institutions’ risk-management departments tending to gravitate to simplified versions of the dominant beliefs of economists who are, in fact, very much alive. Read Adair Turner's article on Project Syndicate here.
donderdag 15 juli 2010
Auctioning Nuclear Plant Lifetimes Would Be 'Transparent but Risky'
The German government is considering conducting an auction in which energy companies would bid for the right to extend the lifetimes of their nuclear power stations beyond their scheduled shutdown dates. Opposition parties are outraged over the idea. Commentators say there are advantages, but also risks. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.
Number of the Week: Euro Zone Debt Is Coming Due
$1.65 trillion: Euro zone bank debt coming due in 2010 and 2011. Read the complete article in the Wall Street Journal here.
Europe's Flawed Carbon-Trading System
The European Union likes to present its greenhouse-gas Emission Trading System as a pioneering success story. But our research at Delft University tells a different story—that the system is simply not producing the timely, significant reduction of CO2 emissions originally envisaged. A tax on CO2 emissions would be a far more beneficial alternative, not only for companies, but for consumers and for our climate as well. Read the complete opinion article in the Wall Street Journal here.
Europe Struggles to Match Success of U.S. Bank Tests
"Test results are due out on July 23. It is impossible to tell from outline plans unveiled last week if the tests will be truly severe, will publish more than a simple “passed/failed" label for every bank, and, crucially, what will be done with the failed ones." Read the complete analysis in the NYTimes here.
La lutte contre la fraude fiscale a rapporté 4,226 milliards
Lisez l'article complet dans Le Soir ici.
Grijsgedraaid
De waarschuwingen over de oplopende kosten van de vergrijzing zijn nu genoeg herhaald. Tijd om er ook echt iets aan te doen. Lees het volledige commentaarstuk van Patrick Martens in Knack hier.
woensdag 14 juli 2010
How Dangerous Is U.S. Government Debt?
The dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency has become a facet of U.S. power, allowing the United States to borrow effortlessly and sustain an assertive foreign policy. But the capital inflows associated with the dollar’s reserve-currency status have created a vulnerability, too, opening the door to a foreign sell-off of U.S. securities that could drive up U.S. interest rates. In this Center for Geoeconomic Studies Capital Flows Quarterly, Francis E. Warnock argues that a sell-off came close to happening in 2009. How the United States uses this reprieve will affect the nation’s ability to borrow for years to come, with broad implications for the sustainability of an active U.S. foreign policy. Read the complete paper here.
Sen on Smith
Harvard Professor and Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen speaks on "The Uses and Abuses of Adam Smith" at Duke University as part of a celebration weekend of the 40th anniversary of the History of Political Economy Journal. Watch the complete lecture at Duke University on Youtube here.
Opel als kantelmoment
Jan Denys is het niet eens met het plan van de federale minister van Werk om de brugpensioenregeling nog te versoepelen: 'Milquet doet net het omgekeerde van wat ze zou moeten doen.' Jan Denys is arbeidsmarktdeskundige bij Randstad. Lees zijn volledige opiniestuk in De Morgen hier.
Fiscal Fibs and Follies
Across the globe, the debate over fiscal consolidation has the distinct sound of two sides talking past one another. Whereas severely distressed southern European states may well benefit from cutting their budget deficits, those arguing for fiscal consolidation in the major G-20 economies are playing a dangerous game. Read Barry Eichengreen's column on Project Syndicate here.
On the consequences of an EU patent for inventors and patent offices
For more than 40 years, many governments and professional associations have acted, voted, or lobbied against the implementation of the EU patent. This column argues that the EU patent would drastically reduce patenting costs for applicants and generate more income for both the European Patent Office as well as most national offices, all the while saving €120 million in legal fees. Read the column of Jérôme Danguy and Bruno van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie on VOX here.
A cure that could do more harm than good
Pursuit of regulatory perfection will transfer risks from banks to customer, writes Masayuki Oku, chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association. Read the article in FT here.
Federale plannen schaden Vlaamse wetenschappers
Lees het opiniestuk van de Vlaamse rectoren in De Standaard hier.
dinsdag 13 juli 2010
How Inequality Fueled the Crisis
"Technological progress in the US requires the labor force to have ever greater skills. A high school diploma was sufficient for office workers 40 years ago, whereas an undergraduate degree is barely sufficient today. But the education system has been unable to provide enough of the labor force with the necessary education. The reasons range from indifferent nutrition, socialization, and early-childhood learning to dysfunctional primary and secondary schools that leave too many Americans unprepared for college. The everyday consequence for the middle class is a stagnant paycheck and growing job insecurity. Politicians feel their constituents’ pain, but it is hard to improve the quality of education, for improvement requires real and effective policy change in an area where too many vested interests favor the status quo."
Read Rajan's article on Project Syndicate here.
Read Rajan's article on Project Syndicate here.
Waalse groei haalt Vlaamse bijna in
De Vlaamse economie zal de komende jaren trager groeien dan in het verleden, de Waalse sneller. Het verschil wordt klein. Lees het volledige artikel in De Standaard hier.
Crisis weegt op migratie
Door de crisis zijn migranten minder welkom in de rijke landen. En zij die er al zijn, worden zwaarder getroffen door de recessie. De Oeso trekt aan de alarmbel. Lees het volledige artikel in De Standaard hier.
Inscriptions : trois recours rejetés par le Conseil d’Etat
Lisez l'article complet dans Le Soir ici.
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