Survey results in 15 European countries for almost 15,000 firms reveal that Belgian firms react
more than the average European firm to adverse shocks by reducing permanent and temporary
employment. On the basis of a firm-level analysis, this paper confirms that the different reaction
to shocks is significant and investigates what factors explain this difference. Although the
explanatory value of the variables is limited, most of the explanatory power of the model being
associated with the dummy variables coding for firm size, sector and country, the variables
investigated provide valuable information. The importance of wage bargaining above the firm
level, the automatic system of index-linking wages to past inflation, the limited use of flexible pay,
the high share of low-skilled blue-collar workers, the labor intensive production process as well as
the less stringent legislation with respect to the protection against dismissal are at the basis of the
stronger employment reaction of Belgian firms. On the contrary, employment is safeguarded by
the presence of many small firms and a wage cushion. Read the complete Research Paper from the National Bank of Belgium here.
woensdag 25 augustus 2010
Me Medicine
Donna Dickenson develops some of the amazing possibilities of genetic personalized medicine but fears that resoureces will not be invested on the most effective health interventions, but on the most personalized and profitable, which nowadays go hand-in-hand. Read the complete opinion article on Project Syndicate here.
The Great Recession's Labor-Market Lessons
Opinion article by Marc De Vos in yesterday's Wall Street Journal:
The Great Recession is showing some unexpected results on the unemployment front. The irresistible job machine that used to be the U.S. labor market continues to sputter. Job creation remains disappointing. A decidedly un-American unemployment rate of close to 10% leaves almost 15 million Americans unemployed. And that is not counting the millions more who are underemployed, or the numerous jobs that are officially and artificially "saved or created" by stimulus spending.
The Great Recession is showing some unexpected results on the unemployment front. The irresistible job machine that used to be the U.S. labor market continues to sputter. Job creation remains disappointing. A decidedly un-American unemployment rate of close to 10% leaves almost 15 million Americans unemployed. And that is not counting the millions more who are underemployed, or the numerous jobs that are officially and artificially "saved or created" by stimulus spending.
Across the pond, on a European continent traditionally lambasted for its outdated and stifling labor rigidities, the picture is surprisingly less bleak. For sure, European countries have had their fair share of the employment hemorrhaging and have also seen something of the frosty hiring slump that has been the crisis fallout throughout most of the developed world's labor markets. But in relation to their economic performance, many European countries have registered less unemployment increase than the U.S. The list covers almost the entire Old Europe, including such otherwise notorious labor market underperformers as Italy, France, and Belgium.
It used to be different. For decades, Europeans have been told that they need to become more American if they want more growth and more jobs. That conviction eventually morphed into an official European Union agenda for so-called "flexicurity," seeking to combine flexible labor markets with supportive policies for personal employability. Whatever its merits, flexicurity was always more a hype among policy wonks than a reality on the European work floor. The recent reversal in labor-market fortunes has now brought a number of observers to question the mantra altogether. European politicians did not go on a Keynesian spending spree to save jobs. Instead, they to point their countries' built-in labor protections as the reason for their recent outperformance. Union experts have joined the chorus, labeling flexicurity a fair-weather friend and reclaiming old-fashioned restrictions as the guarantors of stability.
This trans-Atlantic comparison is premature. There is simply no quick labor market fix for an economic recession, whatever your policy persuasion may be. Economic differences go a long way toward explaining today's differences in labor-market outcomes among countries. Some countries have been hit more by the Great Recession than others, some have had a major domestic real-estate crisis to add to the global contraction, and some have been able to take better advantage of the rebounding economy in the developing world. Germany's ability to export to Asia helps its domestic employment. A real-estate crisis weighs heavily on unemployment in Ireland and Spain alike, notwithstanding big differences in their respective labor-market models. Beyond the economy there is demography. Aging and immigration affect different countries differently, with ramifications for their respective labor forces and—consequently—unemployment figures.
None of these factors relate to labor-market policies per se, but all of them heavily impact labor-market outcomes. Moreover, the traditional view of the inflexibility of European labor markets is really outdated. Virtually all of the European countries that have rigid and inflexible labor regulations have also grown a wide penumbra of often extremely flexible atypical work. Companies in Europe thus have layers of flexible temporary workers that can be employed, re-employed, and laid off as a matter of course. Such is the legacy of rigid labor markets whose beneficiaries have never accepted overall modernization: a multi-tier market in which insiders enjoy cushy stability for most of their careers at the expense of incoming outsiders. Predictably, the brunt of any labor-market contraction then falls on the outsiders, who either lose temporary work or enter the labor market with very limited job prospects.
The labor-market lesson of the Great Recession so far lies not in the vagaries of unemployment statistics, but in the worsening of the divide between insiders and outsiders. For the responses of virtually all European governments to the current jobs crisis have primarily been aimed at protecting existing jobs even more. Across the Continent, subsidy mechanisms and regulatory measures have sought to avoid redundancies through working-time reduction, temporary-unemployment systems, cash-for-clunkers programs, and the like. As a result, the chasm between the haves and the have-nots on the labor market has only deepened further.
By entrenching existing employment, European politicians and employers have not demonstrated the uselessness of flexible labor markets in times of crisis. They have instead undermined the potential for a downturn to prompt useful job transitions in a period of profound economic change. Europe's internal-market rules did prevent a repeat of wholesale state support as a crisis policy. But its light-version in the labor market has similar consequences. Time will tell whether Europe is—once again—only slowing inevitable transitions and therefore undermining future growth and productivity to the detriment of all, or whether its job shielding will be a jump board and allow companies to grow anew with lower redundancy and recruitment costs.
Whatever the outcome, the bottom line is a labor-market preference for the incumbent at the expense of newcomer. This goes beyond reduced job opportunities as such. The niceties of increased employment protection and automatic stabilizers translate into deficits that will have to be paid by future workers. The same generational arithmetic obviously holds for deficit spending on expanded unemployment insurance and Keynesian job creation in the U.S. Labor-market realities on both sides of the Atlantic thus share what is becoming an overall tendency of our crisis epoch: our generation's unwillingness or inability to pay for its collective mistakes.
Can the NHS Be Fixed?
"To put it another way, in a free system, the government determines supply, but consumers and doctors want to control their own demand. The right metaphor for Mr. Lansley's reforms, then, is neither deck-chairs nor Trojan horses, but the straitjacket. Trying to fix the NHS without addressing this basic issue is like trying squirm your way out of one. You can wriggle and contort all you want, but you can't escape the central fact that one person writes the checks while another demands the services." Read the complete article in The Wall Street Journal here.
Het gevaar van een te lage rente
"Het paniekgevoel bij Ben Bernanke, baas van het federale hedgefonds van de Amerikaanse staat - vroeger bekend als de centrale bank - neemt toe. Hij vreest een double dip en wil daarom meer onconventionele wapens gebruiken in de strijd tegen deflatie. Daarmee kan hij de financiële crisis verergeren, ook in Europa," schrijft Geert Noels in Trends. Lees het volledige artikel hier.
Will the Next Generation be Better off Than Their Parents’ Generation?
Gary Becker and Richard Posner debate a timeless question: Will the next generation be better off than their parents' generation? Becker's take: "America has always been optimistic about its future. The decline in such optimism during the past couple of decades is understandable, but highly regrettable. The best way to restore this optimism is to promote faster economic growth. That is feasible with the right policies, but will not happen automatically. Even America has no destiny to be optimistic about the future without important redirection of various public priorities."Read the complete post on their blog here.
La "flexsécurité" à la peine
Si les chiffres inquiétants de l'économie américaine ou le redressement rapide de l'économie allemande monopolisent l'attention, l'état des marchés du travail des pays scandinaves de l'Union européenne est également instructif.
Lisez l'article dans Le Monde ici.
Berlin présente son projet de loi pour taxer les banques
Une semaine avant la présentation de son plan de rigueur en conseil des ministres, mercredi 1er septembre, le ministre des finances allemand, Wolfgang Schäuble, présente dès mercredi 25 août un premier projet de loi destiné, lui, à ponctionner les banques.
Lisez l'article dans Le Monde ici.
dinsdag 24 augustus 2010
En Bourse, le vice rapporte autant que la vertu
L'investissement socialement responsable est à la mode et rapporte tout comme son opposé, le vice fund lancé aux Etats-Unis en 2002. Lisez l'article complet sur Slate.fr ici.
Income Inequality and Financial Crises
David A. Moss, an economic and policy historian at the Harvard Business School, has spent years studying income inequality. While he has long believed that the growing disparity between the rich and poor was harmful to the people on the bottom, he says he hadn’t seen the risks to the world of finance, where many of the richest earn their great fortunes.
Read this article in the New York Times here.
Le patrimoine retrouvé grâce à l'épargne
ING Focus se concentre ce mois-ci sur l’évolution du patrimoine financier des ménages belges pendant et après la crise. L’étude montre que s’il est bien avéré que le patrimoine a atteint un nouveau record historique, cela est autant lié à un incroyable effort d’épargne qu’à un retour progressif des actifs à leur valorisation d’avant-crise.
Lisez cette publication d'ING ici.
Lisez cette publication d'ING ici.
The Plight of the Roma
The Roma have been persecuted across Europe for centuries. Now they face a form of discrimination unseen in Europe since World War II: group evictions and expulsions from several European democracies of men, women, and children on the grounds that they pose a threat to public order. Read George Soros' article for Project Syndicate here.
The consensus in favour of Swedish thinking
In the early 1990s, it had its own banking and economic crisis. Might what worked for Sweden now also work for others? Read the complete article in the Financial Times here.
Combler le bon trou
Face à plusieurs trous, lequel combler le plus rapidement ? Celui qui constitue le plus grand danger. Une loi particulièrement vérifiée lorsqu’appliquée aux finances publiques. Lisez l'article complet dan La Libre Belgique ici.
Angela Merkel countert protest over taks op energiecentrales
Ondanks het protest van energiebedrijven E.ON en RWE, houdt de Duitse kanselier Angela Merkel vast aan een taks op de exploitatie van Duitse kerncentrales. Lees het volledige artikel in Trends hier.
La «surprise» à 400 millions du Trésor belge
L’Agence de la dette a revu à la baisse ses prévisions de charges d’intérêt pour la dette belge, et ce, grâce à la baisse historique des taux. Elle chiffre le bonus ainsi dégagé entre 350 et 400 millions d’euros. Mais prévient : le déficit budgétaire n’en sera pas moindre pour autant.
Lisez l'article dans Trends tendances ici.
Zone euro : la croissance de l’activité ralentit en août
La croissance de l’activité privée dans la zone euro a ralenti légèrement en août, selon une première estimation de l’indice des directeurs d’achats (PMI) publiée ce lundi par la société Markit.
Lisez l'article dans Le Soir ici.
maandag 23 augustus 2010
Healthcare competition saves lives
Governments faced with rising costs and growing demand are constantly searching for methods of delivering higher productivity in healthcare. This column suggests that the introduction of competition among UK hospitals – yet with a fixed price – has increased quality, as measured by lower death rates, and this without a commensurate increase in costs.
Read this article on voxeu.org here.
vrijdag 20 augustus 2010
La précarité de l’emploi s’étend
De impact van hoger onderwijs op lonen. Een vergelijkende analyse van verschillende studierichtingen
Theodore Schultz, één van de grondleggers van de ‘human capital theory’, wees er 50 jaar geleden reeds op dat personen investeren in onderwijs vanuit de idee dat die investering na het afstuderen een hoger loon zal opleveren. Daar waar Schultz’ inzicht een halve eeuw geleden verdeeldheid zaaide, is deze zienswijze vandaag de dag tot vanzelfsprekendheid geworden in een maatschappij die zich steeds meer wenst te definiëren als kenniseconomie. Zoals geformuleerd in de Lissabon-doelstellingen van de EU, zullen economieën die de meeste informatie en kennis produceren, in de toekomst ook de meest effectieve zijn. Loonverschillen vormen een niet te onderschatten ‘incentive’ voor individuen om te investeren in een bruikbaar pakket aan kwalificaties via het volgen van (hoger) onderwijs. Hoewel er consensus over bestaat dat personen met een hoger niveau van onderwijs ook hogere inkomsten genereren, is het niet eenvoudig dit te kwantificeren. Toch is het precies die kwantificering waar deze paper zich mee inlaat. Uiteraard is het ‘meten’ van de relatie tussen lonen en onderwijs geen nieuw idee. De vorige decennia verscheen een overweldigende hoeveelheid aan publicaties die focussen op het onderzoek naar het rendement van scholing. Zoals de econoom Psacharopoulus opmerkt, nemen slechts weinig auteurs echter de moeite om het effect van de verscheidene opleidingsniveaus op het loon te schatten. Nog schaarser zijn studies die zich verdiepen tot op het niveau van afzonderlijke studierichtingen binnen specifieke opleidingsniveaus van het hoger onderwijs. Dit werkstuk wil, wat België betreft, een aanzet vormen in het wegwerken van die lacune. De vraag staat centraal in hoeverre de studiekeuze van een achttienjarige impact heeft op de loonsevolutie van dat individu gedurende zijn of haar loopbaan. Daarnaast wordt onderzocht op welke leeftijd de opportuniteitskosten en de studiekosten van een diploma hoger onderwijs effectief zijn terugbetaald.
Lees dit KUL rapport hier.
Lees dit KUL rapport hier.
donderdag 19 augustus 2010
Welfare to work: Sticks rather than carrots
Rising unemployment has forced policymakers to look for ways to get the unemployed back to work – to raise the “reemployment” rate of the unemployed. This column provides new evidence from the Netherlands suggesting that the stick of benefit sanctions is much more effective than the carrot of reemployment bonuses. Read the complete opinion piece on VOXEU by Bas van der Klaauw and Jan van Ours here.
Unblock the real barriers to higher education
Universities should be able to pursue their own distinctive choices free from government control, writes Nick Butler (The writer is the author, with Richard Lambert, of The Future of European Universities: Renaissance or Decay? published by the Centre for European Reform). Read the complete opinion piece in The Financial Times here.
Better Schools, or Better Teachers?
How much does school choice matter? Probably less than you think, as Levitt has previously argued. Now, in an analysis of seven years of test-score data from 6,000 Los Angeles teachers, the L.A. Times and the Rand Corp. have found teacher effectiveness to be three times more influential than school attendance on student performance. Read the complete post on the Freakonomics blog here.
Het dilemma van Deleeck
Vakbonden en patroons wisten al 16 jaar wat hen te doen stond om ‘het beste systeem van de wereld’ overeind te houden. Lees de volledige column van Karl Van den Broeck in Knack hier.
Statistical aspects of the energy economy in 2009
Cette publication donne un premier aperçu de l’économie énergétique en 2009 sur la base des données mensuelles cumulées pour chaque Etat membre. L’évolution de la production et de la consommation pour les principaux produits énergétiques – le pétrole, le gaz naturel, les combustibles solides, l’énergie nucléaire et l’énergie électrique primaire – est décrite. Des indicateurs principaux tels que le taux de dépendance énergétique et l’intensité énergétique sont présentés. De plus, les degrés jours de chauffage calculés sur la base de la méthodologie commune d’Eurostat sont inclus.
Read this Eurostat publication here.
Le danger d'un taux d'intérêt trop bas
Le sentiment de panique envahit de plus en plus Ben Bernanke, patron du hedge fund fédéral des Etats-Unis, autrefois connu sous le nom de Banque centrale. Il craint un «double creux» et veut dès lors recourir à des armes moins conventionnelles dans la lutte contre la déflation. En les utilisant, il peut cependant aggraver la crise financière, également en Europe.
Lisez cette chronique de Geert Noels dans Trends tendances ici.
Fiscal fundamentalists
Austerity or stimulus? Some economists have much more extreme views than that.
Read this article in The Economist here.
Read this article in The Economist here.
Régionaliser ou communautariser ? Quelques arguments vus de Bruxelles
"Mes étudiants connaissent mon goût pour les discussions animées, mais – ils le savent – il faut avancer des arguments ou des éléments de réflexion. Sur le sujet actuel, à savoir Bruxelles, et sa place dans la structure de l’État selon que l’on régionalise ou communautarise, j’ai noté cinq points interpellants ou qui doivent être pris en compte lorsque l’on aborde la question. ...."
Lisez la suite de cette carte blanche dans Le Soir ici.
Di Rupo: "il faut atterrir"
Elio Di Rupo a accepté de poursuivre sa mission à la demande du Roi. Il espère que sa volonté d’aboutir sera partagée par tous... Ne l’est-elle pas?
Lisez l'article dans LLB ici.
woensdag 18 augustus 2010
Radical Britain: The unlikely revolutionary
David Cameron’s Britain has embarked on the toughest fiscal tightening and most drastic decentralisation of any big, rich country. The stakes are high. So are the risk. Read the complete article in The Economist here.
Consensus onder economen, nu nog bij de onderhandelaars
Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Degrauwe en Dewatripont in De Morgen hier.
Is jobmobiliteit bevorderlijk voor werkzekerheid? Over loopbaanpatronen en hun effecten
In het kader van de flexicurity-strategie verricht de Europese Commissie studiewerk naar te verwachten positieve of negatieve effecten van specifieke arbeidsmarkttransities. Aan de hand van normatieve criteria met betrekking tot het individueel niveau van werkzekerheid (employment security) wordt een onderscheid gemaakt tussen op- of neerwaartse mobiliteit. Hierbij worden gekeken naar transities tussen socio-economische posities, tussen contractvormen en tussen loonniveaus. In dit rapport stellen we ons de vraag wat dit betekent voor de Belgische en Vlaamse arbeidsmarkt en gaan we na of verschillende soorten jobmobiliteit gepaard gaan met op- of neerwaartse mobiliteit in het verdere loopbaan- en loontraject.
Lees dit rapport van de Steunpunt WSE hier.
L'économie européenne dépend de plus en plus de l'Allemagne
Il va falloir arrêter de sermonner Angela Merkel. Depuis plusieurs mois les partenaires européens de la chancelière allemande lui demandent, en vain, de "soutenir" son économie. Sourde aux exhortations, Mme Merkel s'en est tenue à une politique de prudence budgétaire, accentuée même dans le sens de l'austérité, avec un nouveau plan de réduction du déficit.
Lisez l'article dans Le Monde ici.
La révision de la loi de financement, un sujet souvent évoqué
La loi de financement et une loi spéciale datant du 16 janvier 1989 règlent le financement des Communautés et des Régions. Elle a été revue à deux reprises lors des réformes de l’Etat de 1993 et de 2001.
Lisez cet article dans Le Soir ici.
Des retards scolaires trois fois plus élevés chez les étrangers en Flandre
Dans l’enseignement obligatoire flamand, les retards scolaires sont trois fois plus importants chez les enfants non-belges que chez les belges, selon des chiffres cités par le ministre flamand de l’Enseignement Pascal Smet dans une réponse à une question parlementaire.
Lisez cet article dans Le Soir ici.
dinsdag 17 augustus 2010
Will public deficit reduction encourage private sector growth, or undermine a needed stimulus to recovery & lead to Japan-style stagnation?
Economists sharply disagree on what many are now calling “the austerity debate.” Some prominent economists (for example, INET Advisor Kenneth Rogoff) believe that cutting deficits and reducing debt is essential to inspire confidence in financial markets and to ensure that long-term economic growth is not damaged. Others (for example Paul Krugman and Robert Skidelsky, who spoke at INET’s inaugural conference) think that any attempt to reduce expenditures today will be self-defeating since it will further weaken the economy, lead to lower growth and reduced tax revenues in the future, and so greater deficits and debt in the end.
What do economists like Kenneth Rogoff and Richard Koo think? Watch their interventions for the Institute of New Economic Thinking here.
What do economists like Kenneth Rogoff and Richard Koo think? Watch their interventions for the Institute of New Economic Thinking here.
Economists React: Consumer Can’t Drive Recovery
Read the complete post on the WSJ Real Economics blog here.
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