The Economics of Gypsies

Gypsies are not only hot in the Belgian media. Steven Levitt wrote this on the Freakonomics blog:
"My friend Pete Leeson is one of the most original and creative economists I know. First, he wrote about pirate economics (he was even kind enough to write three guest posts on the Freakonomics blog).

Then he tackled “ordeals” –- the medieval method of trial in which one’s guilt was assessed by whether an arm that was plunged into boiling water got burned. His conclusion: it was not a miracle when the accused emerged unscathed from the boiling water treatment. As long as everyone believed that the boiling water would reveal guilt, it made more sense to confess than to have one’s arm get boiled and then be punished for the crime on top of that. So the only people who were willing to go through the ordeal were those who were falsely accused. Consequently, it appears that the people who carried out the ordeals didn’t really boil the water (it’s not clear whether they did this on purpose or accidentally –- I suspect on purpose).

Now, he has moved on to gypsies. Apparently, gypsies believe in all sorts of strange things, like that the lower half of the human body is polluted and non-gypsies are spiritually toxic. These bizarre beliefs, he argues, substitute for traditional institutions of law and order. Like all of Leeson’s best work, when I start reading it I don’t really believe it, but by the end I’m not only convinced, I feel like running out and telling everyone I know about it."

La pauvreté en Belgique

Lisez cette publication dans la Revue économique juin 2010 de la BNB ici.

Un-Freakonomics

"Roth uses the mathematical tools of game theory to find fixes for big, broken systems. Over the last 20 years he has pioneered a branch of economics known as market design. Among Roth's accomplishments: designing networks for kidney donations and creating elegant systems that enable huge urban school districts to optimally place multitudes of students among hundreds of schools." Read the complete article on Forbes here.

'Open Vld vervalste begroting'

Open Vld heeft de begroting vervalst." Tot die conclusie komt John Crombez, de begrotingsspecialist van de sp.a, nu uit een rapport van het monitoringcomité is gebleken dat het begrotingstekort dit jaar oploopt tot 5,2 procent en volgend jaar tot 5,6 procent in plaats van een tekort van respectievelijk 4,8 en 4,1 procent. Dat schrijft De Tijd woensdag. Lees het volledige artikel in De Standaard hier.

What is the growth potential of green innovation? An assessment of EU climate policy options

Read this EC Economic Paper here.

Zijn onze banken echt stressbestendig?

KOEN SCHOORS is blij dat de Europese banken doorgelicht worden, maar stelt zich vragen bij de criteria. We weten immers nog altijd niet of onze banken een liquiditeitscrisis kunnen doorstaan, want daarop zijn ze niet getest. Lees het volledige opiniestuk in De Standaard hier.

The Hidden Future of the US Economy

"Just how bad is the outlook for the United States’ economy?", Martin Feldstein - economics professor at Harvard - wonders. "Unfortunately, you cannot tell from the forecasts." Read the complete opinion article on Project Syndicate here.

Werkloze is nieuwe baan snel weer kwijt

"Zes maanden nadat de werlozen een baan hebben gevonden, is 72 procent van de betrokkenen nog altijd aan het werk. Omgekeerd is na die periode van zes maanden 28 procent opnieuw zonder werk gevallen. Na een periode van twee jaar loopt het aantal werkenden terug tot 48 procent en loopt de groep die in de werkloosheid is hervallen op tot 52 procent. De helft van de Vlaamse werklozen die een baan vinden (al dan niet een uitzendbaan), is die baan dus relatief snel weer kwijt. Vooral wie uit de werkloosheid geraakt door een uitzendbaan aan te nemen, loopt sneller kans om in de werkloosheid te hervallen. Dat is niet onlogisch, want uitzendopdrachten zijn per definitie tijdelijk." Lees het volledige artikel in De Standaard hier.

Future generations will curse us for cutting in a slump

In 1937 Keynes wrote: “The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.” Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, disagrees. Stripped of its jargon, his argument last Friday in the Financial Times is that fiscal retrenchment is needed to “consolidate recovery”. This has become the standard European – though not American – line. “Failure to address the deficit is the greatest danger we face,” said UK Treasury minister Lord Sassoon in the House of Lords on Monday, faithfully echoing the words of his master, chancellor George Osborne. But beyond vaguely referring to the need to restore “confidence”, none of the cutters can explain how reducing public spending when private spending is already depressed will “consolidate recovery”.

Read this article in the FT here.

World economy: Vulnerable to vertigo

Double dip. It is the phrase on everyone’s lips – and it makes many of those lips tremble. With the shock of 2008 fading into memory, the moment of reckoning for the global economy has arrived. Will the bounce back from the nadir become established as a return to sustainable expansion – or will initial relief mutate into the despair of a renewed slowdown?

Read this article in the FT here.

La population belge croît plus vite que celle de l’UE

En 2009, la population belge a crû 2,6 fois plus vite que celle de l’ensemble de l’Union européenne. Au 1er janvier 2010, la Belgique comptait 10,827 millions d’habitants.

Lisez cet article dans Le Soir ici.

Consultez les statistiques d'Eurostat ici.

Britain Plans to Decentralize Health Care

"Perhaps the only consistent thing about Britain’s socialized health care system is that it is in a perpetual state of flux, its structure constantly changing as governments search for the elusive formula that will deliver the best care for the cheapest price while costs and demand escalate." Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.

Read the NHS White Paper here.

Ivan Van de Cloot over de stresstests

We hebben de stresstests gehad. Enkele opmerkingen:
1. Laten we vooral bidden dat Italië een gezond budgettair land is gezien de blootstelling

2. Ontstellend dat men nog steeds het probleem van hybride kapitaal in tier 1 niet apprecieert. Core tier 1 had heel andere resultaten opgeleverd.

3. De moral hazard geïllustreerd: de banken die een injectie hebben gekregen van de staat stijgen op de beurs, de banken die op eigen beentje de crisis overleefd hebben, staan onder druk

4. Veel van de geredde banken hebben de injectie nog steeds nodig: zonder die steun halen ze zelfs deze test niet

5. De rode draad bij de banken die in problemen kwamen, was een problematisch liquiditeitsbuffer= wordt niet getest. Als deze test in 2007 was gevallen, waren er verschillende banken geslaagd die toch in de problemen kwamen. Voor een belangrijk stuk is liquiditeit (=vertrouwen) een publiek goed (een volledig liquide bank is geen bank) en solvabiliteit een privaat goed (een insolvabele bank is lemon socialism). Vanaf een bepaald punt wordt het gebrek aan liquiditeit echter Russische roulette spelen

6. Een stress test die verliesposities lager inschat dan de huidige realiteit op de markt heeft niets met stress van doen. Rationeel zouden we inderdaad ook een probabiliteit op wanbetaling moeten plakken zodat de banking book ook relevant wordt.

Despite Flaws, Stress Tests May Satisfy Markets

Read the complete article in the NYTimes here.

Economists Try to Measure Uncertainty’s Impact on Growth

Uncertainty has become the mantra of this economic cycle.

Read this article in the WSJ here.

Today’s Keynesians have learnt nothing

To those of us who first encountered the dismal science of economics in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the current debate on fiscal policy in the western world has been – no other word will do – depressing.

Read this article in the FT here.

Très chères voitures de société

Selon les chercheurs d'un centre de recherche danois, La Belgique aurait "subsidié" les voitures de société à hauteur de 4,1 milliards d'euros en 2008, soit 1,2% du produit national brut.

Lisez l'article dans LLB ici.

Un dérapage budgétaire de 1,3 milliard d'euros dès 2010

Quelques fonctionnaires qui suivent le budget depuis la chute du gouvernement estiment dans un rapport récent le déficit budgétaire en 2010 à 5,2% ou 18 milliards d'euros. Il reste donc un "trou" de 1,3 milliard d'euros.

Lisez cet article dans LLB ici.

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Fall in 2009 - Past Decade Still Sees Rapid Emissions Growth

In 2009, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China—the world’s leading emitter—grew by nearly 9 percent. At the same time, emissions in most industrial countries dropped, bringing global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use down from a high of 8.5 billion tons of carbon in 2008 to 8.4 billion tons in 2009. Yet this drop follows a decade of rapid growth: over the 10 previous years, global CO2 emissions rose by an average of 2.5 percent a year—nearly four times as fast as in the 1990s. Increasing temperatures and the resulting melting ice sheets and rising sea levels demonstrate the destructive effects of the carbon accumulating in the atmosphere. Read the complete paper of the Earth Policy Institute here.

Does happiness affect productivity?

Happiness economics typically looks at how macro-level variables such as economic growth affect happiness. This column turns such thinking on its head and asks whether a rise in happiness might change behaviour at the micro-level, looking specifically at productivity. Experiments suggest that happiness raises productivity by increase workers' effort. Economists may need to take the emotional state of economic agents seriously. Read the complete article on EU VOX here.

Informel zorg in Vlaanderen

Lees die publicatie van de Studiedienst van de Vlaamse regering hier.

Vlaanderen in cijfers_2010

Lees die publicatie van de Studiedienst van de Vlaamse Regering hier.

Bomen groeien niet tot de hemel: de werkelijke kostprijs van de dienstencheques

Lees die HIVA studie hier.

Thriving China is ever more open for business

For the past year, China has expanded domestic demand and worked to attract foreign investment, contributing to the global recovery. However, concerns have recently been floated, not least among foreign businesses, that China is now less welcoming of foreign investment. In fact, China will open wider in the future.

Read this article in the FT here.

Et si on cassait la logique du "toujours plus"

Le professeur Christian Arnsperger (UCL) défend l’idée d’une “prospérité sans croissance”. Une idée assez neuve qui plaît surtout aux étudiants…

Lisez l'article dans LLB ici.

Le commerce mondial devrait progresser de 10 % en 2010

L'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) a revu, vendredi 23 juillet, à la hausse ses prévisions pour le commerce mondial en 2010, qui devrait progresser de 10 % ou plus. En mars, l'OMC tablait sur une croissance de 9,5 %.

Lisez l'article dans Le Monde ici.

Lisez le rapport complet de l'OMC ici.

Towards a New Architecture for Financial Stability: Seven Principles

Abstract
In this paper we use insights from organizational economics and financial regulation to study
the optimal architecture of supervision. We suggest that the new architecture should revolve
around the following principles: (i) banking, securities and insurance supervision should be
further integrated; (ii) macro prudential supervisory function must be in the hands of the
central bank; (iii) the relation between macro and micro supervisors must be articulated
through a management by exception system involving direct authority of the macro
supervisor over enforcement and allocation of tasks; (iv) given the difficulty of measuring
output on supervisory tasks, the systemic risk supervisor must necessarily be more
accountable and less independent than Central Banks are on their monetary task; (v) the
supervisory agency cannot rely on high powered incentives to motivate supervisors, and must
rely on culture instead; (vi) the supervisor must limit its reliance on self regulation; and (vii)
the international system should substitute the current loose, networked structure for a more
centralized and hierarchical one. Read the CEP paper here.

The “stimulus debate” and the golden rule of mountain climbing

The global macroeconomy is at a juncture; some economists argue for continued fiscal stimulus to avoid a double dip recession while others argue for fiscal prudence. In this column, one of the world's leading macroeconomists argues for continued stimulus combined with a plan to ensure long-run sustainability by reforming the funding of pension liabilities. Read Francesco Giavazzi's piece for VOX here.

I.M.F. Backs Efforts in Europe to Cut Deficits

Read the complete article in The NYTimes here.

For-profit colleges Monsters in the making?

IT SEEMS too good to be true, at least for companies. Customers arrive at for-profit colleges by the million. With them comes billions of dollars of federal student grants and loans, to be poured into corporate coffers. Public subsidies may provide up to 90% of revenue; the government bears the risk of loan defaults. This business model has served firms rather well. Its effect on students and taxpayers is less clear. This summer, however, a brawl over for-profit colleges has exploded at last. Read the complete article in The Economist here.

Unemployment benefits: Read this shirt

A titanic struggle to decide whether the jobless should get money for longer. Read the complete article in The Economist here.

Buitenlandse investeringen kelderen met 70 procent

Lees het volledige artikel in De Standaard hier.

ECB chief calls for global tightening

Public spending cuts and tax increases should be imposed immediately across the industrialised world as evidence of a healthy European recovery mounts, according to Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank.

Read this article in the FT here.

Préformateur: accord de principe sur la scission des allocations familiales

La question sur la scission de la politique du marché du travail a également bien progressé. Les allocations de chômage continueraient à être du ressort fédéral.

Lisez l'article dans LLB ici.

World Investment Report 2010: investing in a low-carbon economy

Read this UNCTAD report here.

De Mad Max-paradox (Kapitalisme 4.0)

In het nieuwe kapitalisme staan flexibiliteit en experimenteren centraal: zowel in de economie, de institutionele organisatie als het overheidsbeleid. Lees het volledige opiniestuk van Peter Dekeyzer in Trends hier.

Voters Rate the Parties' Ideologies

Dems Viewed as Farther from Political Center than is GOP. Read the results of the People's Press poll here.

Too Weak? Concerns Grow over Rigorousness of EU Stress Tests

With the results of European bank stress tests to be released on Friday, some analysts fear that if too few financial institutions fail, the tests will not be be taken seriously. One report indicates that only a single German bank will fail: Munich's Hypo Real Estate. Read the complete article in Der Spiegel International here.

Sow the seeds of long-term growth

"The world economy is entering a new phase after the failure of fiscal stimulus to create a sustained recovery in either the US or Europe. In the US, consumers have retrenched, housing starts have crashed and a double-dip recession is possible. In Europe, fiscal retrenchment is under way after intense market pressures. A new approach to recovery is needed." Read the complete opinion article of Jeffrey Sachs in the Financial Times here.

Joint report on social protection and social inclusion 2010

The Joint Report on Social Protection and Social Inclusion 2010 covers a range of areas including social inclusion policy, housing, healthcare, the impact of the economic crisis on pension systems and governance. It examines the social situation in EU27 before and in the economic and financial crisis and looks at Member States initial responses and preparations made for recovery. The report also includes country profiles on homelessness and housing exclusion for each EU Member State.

Read this EC report here.