Predicting the future evolution of health care expenditure is one of crucial challenges facing the European Union and its Member States in the context of the demographic and social changes taking currently place in Europe. To correctly assess the risk of rising health care spending over the next couple of decades and establish adequate policy responses to the challenges, it is essential to devise a reliable method to estimate future health care expenditure. However, the complexity of the systems and multiplicity of factors affecting both total and public spending make this a highly complicated task, where results will always be surrounded by considerable uncertainties.
To tackle this issue a major project was undertaken by the European Commission and Economic Policy Committee which aimed at projecting future public health care expenditure in twenty seven Member States of the European Union and Norway over the period 2007- 2060. A unique internationally comparable database has been established and a model built allowing to project health care spending in a common, coherent framework of macroeconomic variables and a set of projections covering a number of other age-related items of public social expenditure. The model incorporates the most recent developments in demography and epidemiology and draws on new insights from health economics, allowing the comparison of the risks and challenges facing both individual countries' health care systems and European society in its entirety.
This paper from the European Commission provides a comprehensive overview of the theoretical background, practical aspects of projecting health care expenditure and the actual results of the projections undertaken in the context of long-term budgetary projections.
To tackle this issue a major project was undertaken by the European Commission and Economic Policy Committee which aimed at projecting future public health care expenditure in twenty seven Member States of the European Union and Norway over the period 2007- 2060. A unique internationally comparable database has been established and a model built allowing to project health care spending in a common, coherent framework of macroeconomic variables and a set of projections covering a number of other age-related items of public social expenditure. The model incorporates the most recent developments in demography and epidemiology and draws on new insights from health economics, allowing the comparison of the risks and challenges facing both individual countries' health care systems and European society in its entirety.
This paper from the European Commission provides a comprehensive overview of the theoretical background, practical aspects of projecting health care expenditure and the actual results of the projections undertaken in the context of long-term budgetary projections.
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